Sometimes the winner of the game doesn't matter. Over/Under betting allows you to wager on the flow, pace, and scoring environment of the matchup, regardless of who comes out on top.
Answer-first
Over/Under Betting (also called the "Total") involves wagering on the combined score of both teams in a game. The sportsbook sets a predicted number (e.g., 225.5). You bet on whether the actual final score will be Over (higher) or Under (lower) that number.
The Mechanics of the Total
Bookmakers analyze offensive and defensive stats to set a benchmark number. Your job is to predict if the game will be a shootout or a defensive struggle.
TOTALS EXAMPLE
NBA Game Line: 225.5
- Over 225.5: You win if the combined score is 226 or higher (e.g., 115-112).
- Under 225.5: You win if the combined score is 225 or lower (e.g., 100-98).
Odds and the Juice
Like spreads, Totals usually have odds around -110. This means you must risk $110 to win $100 profit. This small fee is the "vig" or "juice" the sportsbook charges.
Key Factors in Handicapping Totals
To beat the totals market, you need to look beyond average points per game.
- Pace of Play: In basketball, how many possessions per game does each team average? Two fast teams create more scoring opportunities.
- Weather (NFL/MLB): Wind is the enemy of scoring in football and baseball. High wind speeds often correlate with the Under.
- Efficiency: In football, does a team settle for Field Goals (Red Zone efficiency)? This keeps scores lower than expected.
Finding Value in Totals
Value exists when your projected total differs from the sportsbook's line by a significant margin.
Bet Better's proprietary models simulate games thousands of times to determine the most likely score, highlighting +EV opportunities where the market is wrong.
FAQ
Does Overtime count for totals?
Yes. In the NBA and NFL, overtime scoring counts towards the total. This is often a "bad beat" for Under bettors and a miracle for Over bettors.
Why are half-points (.5) used?
Half-points are used to prevent ties (pushes). Since teams cannot score half a point, the bet must result in a Win or a Loss.