Here are our Tennis picks for Tuesday 4 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match, priced at +106 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match (+106)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Lorenzo Sonego faces Tallon Griekspoor at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Lorenzo Sonego wins the match. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Lorenzo Sonego presents strong value at 2.06 against Tallon Griekspoor due to superior recent form and serve metrics on hard courts. Sonego's last five matches show a first serve percentage of 70.43% and a first points won rate of 74.53%, indicating effective serving under pressure. His second serve performance stands at 56.81%, complementing a solid overall serve points won rate of 69.05%. In comparison, Griekspoor’s serve metrics are slightly lower, with a first serve percentage of 64.08% and first points won at 72.73%. Both players have a similar break point save percentage (51.45% for Sonego vs. 50% for Griekspoor), but Sonego's recent form is more compelling, with a 60% win rate in his last five matches compared to Griekspoor's 50%.

Nuno Borges vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Nuno Borges to win the match (-125)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Nuno Borges faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry at Canadian Open on Wednesday 5 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Nuno Borges wins the match. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Nuno Borges presents significant value at odds of 1.8 against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, supported by strong recent form and superior serve performance on hard courts. Borges has a 60% win rate over his last five matches, demonstrating solid momentum. His hard court stats are impressive, boasting a first-serve percentage of 63.84% and winning 76.49% of first-serve points, which is crucial for maintaining service pressure. In contrast, Etcheverry has struggled with a higher opponent first-serve win rate of 74.07% and a lower BP save percentage (66.67%), indicating vulnerability under pressure. Additionally, Borges has a better second-serve performance (52.32% points won), which can exploit Etcheverry’s weaknesses.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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