Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 20 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Coco Gauff vs Marta Kostyuk: Coco Gauff to win the match, priced at -103 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Coco Gauff vs Marta Kostyuk: Coco Gauff to win the match (-103)
Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing
Coco Gauff faces Marta Kostyuk at Cincinnati Open on Friday 21 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Coco Gauff wins the match. It was priced at -103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.70 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Coco Gauff presents value at 1.97 against Marta Kostyuk, given her superior recent form and serve performance. Gauff boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating strong momentum. In contrast, Kostyuk has struggled against tougher opponents, reflected in a lower average first-serve percentage (around 59.7%) and a subpar break point save percentage (74%). On hard courts, Gauff's performance is bolstered by her ability to capitalize on pressure points—a crucial factor given Kostyuk's recent 70.8% break point save rate. Gauff’s offensive capabilities, likely including a higher ace rate compared to Kostyuk’s 2.4%, suggest she can effectively dictate play. Given these predictive indicators, Gauff's combination of form, serve efficacy, and ability to win critical points makes her the value side in this matchup.
Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima to win the match (+194)
Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing
Taylor Fritz faces Brandon Nakashima at Cincinnati Open on Friday 21 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Brandon Nakashima wins the match. It was priced at +194 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Brandon Nakashima presents significant value at 2.94 against Taylor Fritz, given his recent form and serve performance. Over his last five matches, Nakashima boasts an impressive win rate of 80%, indicating strong momentum. Conversely, Fritz has struggled, and their head-to-head context suggests Nakashima may capitalize on Fritz's weaknesses. Nakashima's opponent's serve metrics indicate a first-serve percentage of 63.5% and a second-serve points won rate of 54.7%, suggesting he may face pressure in crucial moments. Nakashima's ability to save break points (47.9%) adds to his resilience, which will be critical against Fritz, who often capitalizes on serve percentages. While Fritz's surface performance shows vulnerability, Nakashima's solid form and the odds imply a potential upset.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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