Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 17 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskaya: Sorana Cirstea to win the match, priced at -106 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskaya: Sorana Cirstea to win the match (-106)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Sorana Cirstea faces Anna Kalinskaya at Cincinnati Open on Monday 17 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Sorana Cirstea wins the match. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Sorana Cirstea presents strong value at 1.94 against Anna Kalinskaya in their upcoming match at the Cincinnati Open. Cirstea's hard-court stats highlight her recent form, with a first-serve percentage of approximately 65.7% and winning 63.1% of first-serve points in her last five matches on this surface. Additionally, she boasts a solid 48.3% win rate on second-serve points and a commendable 53.6% break point save percentage. In contrast, Kalinskaya's recent performance shows lower efficiency, with her opponents winning 67.8% of serve points, indicating vulnerability under pressure. Cirstea's win rate over her last five matches stands at 40%, with a recent uptick to 70% over the past ten matches, showcasing improved form.

Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev: Daniil Medvedev to win the match (-116)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Brandon Nakashima faces Daniil Medvedev at Cincinnati Open on Tuesday 18 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Daniil Medvedev wins the match. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Daniil Medvedev presents significant value at 1.86 against Brandon Nakashima, given his superior hard court performance and recent form. Medvedev's last five matches show a strong average first-serve percentage of 62.18%, with 71.92% of first points won and 51.48% on second points. His 64.52% overall serve points won and a solid 70.83% break point save percentage illustrate his resilience under pressure. In contrast, Nakashima's recent form reveals a win rate of only 40% over his last five matches, with subpar serving metrics likely affecting his performance. Medvedev's ability to handle high-pressure situations is further reflected in his ace rate (7.35%) compared to Nakashima's weaker overall metrics.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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