Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 31 July 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton: Alejandro Tabilo to win the match, priced at +300 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton: Alejandro Tabilo to win the match (+300)
Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing
Alejandro Tabilo faces Ben Shelton at Washington Open on Saturday 1 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alejandro Tabilo wins the match. It was priced at +300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Tabilo's recent hard court form showcases a robust first-serve percentage of 67.85% and a first-serve points won rate of 76%. His ability to win 50.8% of second-serve points and an exceptional break point save percentage of 88.89% highlight his resilience under pressure. In contrast, Shelton's current hard court performance metrics are untested, yielding no relevant data points, which raises concerns about his readiness. Tabilo's consistent serving and pressure point performance, coupled with a 40% win rate in his last five matches, indicates he is not only in form but also capable of capitalizing on Shelton's lack of competitive stats. These factors strongly support Tabilo as the value side in this matchup.
Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match (+275)
Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing
Jessica Pegula faces Anna Kalinskaya at Washington Open on Friday 31 July 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Anna Kalinskaya wins the match. It was priced at +275 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Anna Kalinskaya presents solid value at 3.75 against Jessica Pegula, highlighted by her recent hard-court form. Kalinskaya boasts a win rate of 60% over her last five matches, compared to Pegula's 50% in the same span. On hard courts, Kalinskaya has an impressive first-serve percentage of 64.6% and wins 62.9% of her first points, demonstrating solid serving efficiency. In contrast, her opponents achieve a 69.1% first-serve percentage against her, indicating she can handle pressure. Kalinskaya's second-serve points won at 42.0% and a break point save percentage of 44.1% further illustrate her resilience under pressure. This makes her the value side in this matchup.
That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Unlock all picks