Today's Tennis Best Bets (Monday 08/17 Slate)

Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 17 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli: Alexander Blockx to win the match, priced at -106 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli: Alexander Blockx to win the match (-106)

Alexander Blockx faces Flavio Cobolli at Cincinnati Open on Monday 17 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Blockx wins the match. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Alexander Blockx presents significant value at 1.94, supported by his superior recent form and serve metrics on hard courts. In his last five matches, Blockx boasts an impressive 67.6% first-serve percentage and 75.2% first-point win rate, indicating a strong ability to hold serve effectively. Conversely, Flavio Cobolli struggles with a low 63.4% first-point win rate against a similar caliber of opponents. Blockx's second-serve performance also stands out with a 42.3% win rate, while Cobolli's recent form reveals vulnerability in pressure situations, shown by his opponents' 100% break point save rate against him.

Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova: Sara Bejlek to win the match (+102)

Sara Bejlek faces Ekaterina Alexandrova at Cincinnati Open on Tuesday 18 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Sara Bejlek wins the match. It was priced at +102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Sara Bejlek offers significant value at 2.02 against Ekaterina Alexandrova due to her recent form and serve performance. Bejlek's win rate over her last five matches stands at an impressive 60%, while she boasts a higher overall win rate of 70% over her last ten. In terms of serve metrics, Alexandrova's recent stats show a solid first serve percentage of 70.69% and a points won on serve rate of 65.52%, yet Bejlek has been able to win 60% of her service points in this tournament. Importantly, Bejlek's ability to capitalize on break points (50% save rate for Alexandrova) could prove crucial.

Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskaya: Sorana Cirstea to win the match (-106)

Sorana Cirstea faces Anna Kalinskaya at Cincinnati Open on Monday 17 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Sorana Cirstea wins the match. It was priced at -106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Sorana Cirstea presents strong value at 1.94 against Anna Kalinskaya in their upcoming match at the Cincinnati Open. Cirstea's hard-court stats highlight her recent form, with a first-serve percentage of approximately 65.7% and winning 63.1% of first-serve points in her last five matches on this surface. Additionally, she boasts a solid 48.3% win rate on second-serve points and a commendable 53.6% break point save percentage. In contrast, Kalinskaya's recent performance shows lower efficiency, with her opponents winning 67.8% of serve points, indicating vulnerability under pressure. Cirstea's win rate over her last five matches stands at 40%, with a recent uptick to 70% over the past ten matches, showcasing improved form.

Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges: Andrey Rublev to win the match (-125)

Andrey Rublev faces Nuno Borges at Cincinnati Open on Tuesday 18 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Andrey Rublev wins the match. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Andrey Rublev is the value pick at 1.8 against Nuno Borges, supported by significant statistical advantages. Rublev's recent hard-court form shows a first-serve percentage of 62%, winning 77% of first points and 48% of second points. His ability to win 67% of serve points and save 50% of break points reflects strong service performance under pressure. In contrast, Borges has struggled with a lower first-serve win rate of 71%, with opponent averages showing he faces tough competition on serve, notably with a 75% serve points won rate against him. Borges also has a higher double fault rate at 2.99%, indicating vulnerability in pressure situations.

Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev: Daniil Medvedev to win the match (-116)

Brandon Nakashima faces Daniil Medvedev at Cincinnati Open on Tuesday 18 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Daniil Medvedev wins the match. It was priced at -116 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Daniil Medvedev presents significant value at 1.86 against Brandon Nakashima, given his superior hard court performance and recent form. Medvedev's last five matches show a strong average first-serve percentage of 62.18%, with 71.92% of first points won and 51.48% on second points. His 64.52% overall serve points won and a solid 70.83% break point save percentage illustrate his resilience under pressure. In contrast, Nakashima's recent form reveals a win rate of only 40% over his last five matches, with subpar serving metrics likely affecting his performance. Medvedev's ability to handle high-pressure situations is further reflected in his ace rate (7.35%) compared to Nakashima's weaker overall metrics.

Xiyu Wang vs Elina Svitolina: Elina Svitolina to win the match (-270)

Xiyu Wang faces Elina Svitolina at Cincinnati Open on Tuesday 18 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elina Svitolina wins the match. It was priced at -270 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Elina Svitolina is a strong pick at 1.37 against Xiyu Wang based on her superior recent form and serve performance. Svitolina boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, highlighting her consistent success. In contrast, Wang has struggled, with poor serve metrics and a lower overall win rate. Svitolina's opponent metrics reveal weaknesses, with her last five opponents achieving a first-serve percentage of 69.6% and winning 64.5% of first-serve points. Svitolina's experience allows her to capitalize on these vulnerabilities, particularly in pressure situations, as evidenced by an average BP save percentage of 60%. Given these predictive indicators, Svitolina presents significant value at this price.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.