Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for wagering on Jaylen Warren to have under 22.5 reception yards in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings is heavily based on his recent performance and trends. Over his last five games, Warren has only exceeded 22.5 reception yards once, thus his overall hit rate is 1/5. His home hit rate is also 1/5, showing consistency regardless of venue. Looking at a wider scope of his last 10 games, the trend remains consistent with him only surpassing the target twice overall and four times at home. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is also zero, meaning he has not recently exceeded this target. Given these data points, the model's edge of 0.195 suggests a high likelihood that Warren will not exceed 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Pat Freiermuth to go under 22.5 reception yards is a solid choice based on previous performance data. In his last three games, Freiermuth has failed to surpass this mark, both overall and at home, creating a hit rate of 0/3. The hit rate doesn't significantly improve when we broaden the sample size; he has hit the under in 5/5 and 1/5 of his last five games overall and at home, respectively. In the last 10 games, his overall and home hit rates are 2/10 and 4/10, which are still below average. Furthermore, his overall hit rate is less than 50% (17/48), suggesting a consistent trend of falling short of this target. Given these statistics, it is statistically likely that Freiermuth will again not surpass 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Vikings.

Theo Johnson (NYG) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Theo Johnson for Under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is mainly driven by his recent and overall performance data. In his last five games, Johnson has not met the 20.5 yards reception mark, as indicated by his overall hit rate of 0/5. This trend continues when looking at his last 10 games, where he has also failed to surpass 20.5 yards, resulting in an overall hit rate of 0/10. Even when considering his overall performance, Johnson has only surpassed this mark in 3 out of 13 games, giving him an overall hit rate of approximately 23%. Furthermore, he is currently on a hit streak of zero, showing a recent downturn in performance. Considering these statistics, the model edge of 15.2% for the Under 20.5 bet seems well justified.

Darius Slayton (NYG) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting under 19.5 for Darius Slayton's reception yards is primarily based on his recent performance and hit rates. Slayton's overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0/3, 1/5, and 4/10 respectively, showing a consistent low performance. Even at home, his hit rate is only marginally better with 1/3, 2/5, and 3/10 for the last 3, 5, and 10 games respectively. His current hit streak is zero, both overall and at home, which further undermines confidence in his ability to exceed the 19.5 yards mark. Additionally, his overall hit rate of 13/51 is below 26% and his home hit rate of 10/25 is only 40%, both of which suggest a higher likelihood of underperformance. This pattern of statistics provides a strong basis for betting under

Theo Johnson (NYG) Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Theo Johnson to finish with under 18.5 receiving yards during the Giants vs Chargers game is statistically justified by his recent performance and trends. Johnson has consistently underperformed in his recent games, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last three games, 0/5 in his last five, and 0/10 in his last ten. His performance at home is also underwhelming, with a hit rate of 0/3 in his last three home games and just 2/6 in his last six home games. Moreover, he is currently on a hitless streak both overall and at home, solidifying his downward trend. Given Johnson's poor recent performance and his struggle to gain significant receiving yards, it is statistically sound to bet under 18.5 yards for Johnson in the upcoming game against the Chargers.

Darius Slayton (NYG) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Darius Slayton to come under 17.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is chiefly supported by his recent performance and overall hit rates. Slayton's recent performance demonstrates a consistent struggle to surpass this threshold. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games (0/3, 1/5, 4/10, 6/20) show that he has often failed to reach 17.5 reception yards. His home hit rate, though slightly better, still supports the under bet (1/3, 2/5, 3/10, 8/20). Furthermore, considering his overall hit rate (12/51), Slayton fails to reach the 17.5 yard mark approximately 76% of the time. His current hit streak of zero in both overall and home games further strengthens the rationale for the under bet. Based on these statistics,

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