Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Sterling Shepard to go under 22.5 in 'player_reception_yds' appears to be a strong play considering his recent performance and hit rates. Shepard has fallen short of this mark in both his last three overall games (0/3) and his last three home games (1/3). Moreover, when facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Shepard's hit rate has been below average, both overall (1/2) and at home (1/2). His longer-term performance reflects a similar trend. In his last 20 games, Shepard has fallen short of the 22.5-yard threshold more than half the time (8/20). At home, his hit rate improves only slightly to 10/15. Against the Eagles, his hit rate remains at 50% (1/2), both overall and at home. Finally, Shepard's current hit streaks are all at zero, indicating a recent dip in his performance. This further supports a bet

Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Statistical analysis indicates a high probability for Sterling Shepard to fall under 22.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. Shepard has not been performing well recently, with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last three games, and hasn't been able to surpass the 22.5 yards in these games. His performance at home and against the Eagles also doesn't inspire confidence, with hit rates of 1/3 and 1/2 respectively. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is 12/20, and at home it's 10/15, indicating a slightly higher but still inconsistent performance. Furthermore, Shepard's current hit streaks, both overall and against the Eagles, are at zero. This trend, coupled with the model's edge of 0.189, suggests that betting on the 'Under' for Shepard's reception yards is a statistically sound wager.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jahmyr Gibbs for Under 21.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns game is statistically favorable. Over recent performances, Gibbs' overall hit rate for achieving more than 21.5 yards in receptions has been low. In the last 3, 5, and 10 games, he's only achieved this once (1/10 games). His performance at home is not significantly different, with only 3 successful games out of the past 10. In his overall performance, he's achieved more than 21.5 yards in less than half of his games (16/39). Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is zero. This implies that Gibbs is currently not surpassing this yardage, suggesting a continuation of this trend. Thus, the under 21.5 bet for Gibbs appears to be a statistically sound choice based on his recent and overall performance data.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical evidence strongly supports a bet on Jahmyr Gibbs to finish with Under 20.5 reception yards in the Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns game. Gibbs has a concerning hit rate in recent games, failing to exceed this yardage total in his last three games overall (0/3) and at home (0/3). This trend extends to his last five and ten games, with hit rates of 0/5 and 1/10 respectively. Furthermore, his overall hit rate stands at a mere 16/39 and is marginally better at home with a hit rate of 7/20. The model edge of 0.16683208179332 also supports this bet, suggesting that there is a significant statistical advantage in predicting Gibbs to underperform. Furthermore, Gibbs is not currently on a hit streak, implying that his recent form doesn't command confidence to bet on him exceeding this yardage total.

Cade Otton (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Cade Otton for under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles game is based on his recent and historical performance. Otton's recent performance shows a consistent underperformance against this prop, with a hit rate of 0/3 in the last three games overall, at home, and against Philadelphia. This extends to a hit rate of 0/5 in the last five games overall and at home. His historical performance also supports this bet. His overall hit rate is 18/50, and 9/25 at home. His hit rate is slightly better against Philadelphia (1/2), but this is based on a much smaller sample size. His current hit streak in all categories is 0, further supporting the under bet. The model edge of 0.161 also suggests that the under bet has a statistical advantage.

Cade Otton (TB) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Looking at Cade Otton's stats, the under 20.5 player reception yards bet is a solid choice. Otton's overall hit rate for the last three games is 0/3, and his home hit rate for the same period is also 0/3, indicating a rough stretch of games. This trend is also mirrored in his last five games, where his overall and home hit rates are still at 0/5. Even when we examine longer-term stats, Otton's overall hit rate for the last 20 games is only 4/20, and his home hit rate for those games is 8/20. His hit rate against the Eagles, both overall and at home, is just 1/2. Moreover, his current hit streak is zero in all categories, which suggests a struggle to reach over 20.5 reception yards. Given these statistics, betting the under on Otton’s reception yards appears to be a data-driven choice.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro