Us Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritz — Tomas Machac Moneyline (+210)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Tomas Machac presents excellent value at odds of 3.1 against Taylor Fritz, with a model probability of 60.6% indicating a significant edge. Machac's recent form shows a 60% win rate over his last five matches and solid service performance, highlighted by a 58.9% first-serve percentage and 66.5% of first points won. His overall serve points won rate stands at 63%, while he also maintains a respectable 50.1% break point save percentage, showcasing resilience under pressure. Comparatively, Fritz, despite his stature, has been inconsistent, and Machac's form suggests he can capitalize on this. With the match on hard court, where Machac has performed well, the combination of his current form and serving efficiency makes him a strong contender, supported by a considerable edge against the market's implied probability.

Us Open: Jessica Pegula vs Ann Li — Jessica Pegula Moneyline (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jessica Pegula is a strong pick against Ann Li, backed by compelling statistics. Pegula boasts a 60.7% first-serve percentage and wins 57.7% of her first-serve points, indicating her ability to dominate service games. Her overall serve points won percentage stands at 51%, demonstrating consistent performance under pressure. Additionally, she has a solid 38.7% break point save rate, showcasing her resilience in critical moments. In her last five matches, Pegula has a 60% win rate, reflecting solid form heading into this matchup. Ann Li’s statistics are not available for comparison, but Pegula's performance on hard courts and her superior serve metrics position her well. With an implied probability of 79.4% against a model probability of 97.9%, the 1.26 odds present a significant value edge of 18.5%. This makes Pegula the clear choice for this head-to-head matchup.

Us Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Taylor Townsend — Barbora Krejcikova Moneyline (-143)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Barbora Krejcikova presents a strong value pick at odds of 1.7 against Taylor Townsend, with a calculated edge of 16.8%. Analyzing her recent form, Krejcikova boasts a solid 60% win rate over her last five matches, demonstrating consistent performance. Her serve metrics on hard courts are impressive: a first-serve percentage of 63.4% and a first-serve points won rate of 64.9%. Moreover, she excels in pressure situations with a break point save percentage of 67.2%, indicating resilience under pressure. In contrast, while we lack specific recent stats for Townsend, Krejcikova's superior serve performance and ability to win critical points provide a significant advantage. Her overall serve points won rate of 58.7% further reinforces her ability to dictate play. Given these metrics, Krejcikova is well-positioned to secure a victory, making her a compelling moneyline bet.