Wimbledon: Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff Moneyline (+144)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Coco Gauff presents a strong value bet at 2.44 against Jessica Pegula, supported by several key performance metrics. Gauff boasts an impressive 80% win rate in her last five matches, coupled with a significantly higher first-serve percentage (54.2% on grass) compared to Pegula (53.2%). On first-serve points won, Gauff excels at 77.7%, while Pegula's rate is lower at 72.0%. Gauff's second-serve success rate (44.7%) also surpasses Pegula's (44.9%), indicating her ability to capitalize under pressure. Moreover, Gauff's average break point save percentage (36.1%) is superior to Pegula’s (32.1%), suggesting better resilience in critical moments. Given Gauff’s recent form and superior serving metrics, including a lower double fault rate and higher ace rate, she is positioned well to take this match, making her the value side in this matchup.

Wimbledon: Madison Keys vs Linda Noskova — Linda Noskova Moneyline (+142)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

In the upcoming Wimbledon match, Linda Noskova presents significant value at odds of 2.42 against Madison Keys. Noskova's recent form is impressive, boasting an 80% win rate over her last five matches, while her serve metrics on grass are notably strong: a first-serve percentage of 57.3% and first-serve points won at 74.0%. Her serve points won rate of 64.2% coupled with a solid break point save percentage of 68.9% indicates her capability to perform under pressure. Comparatively, Keys' recent performance has been less convincing, suggesting she may struggle against Noskova's serving prowess. Additionally, Noskova's lower double fault rate (5.5%) enhances her reliability on serve. With a model probability of 60.2% versus an implied probability of 41.3%, betting on Noskova represents a substantial edge of nearly 19%. This data-driven assessment points to her as the value side in this matchup.

Wimbledon: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery — Grigor Dimitrov Moneyline (-213)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Grigor Dimitrov presents strong value at 1.47 against Arthur Fery, backed by compelling serve performance and recent form. On grass, Dimitrov boasts a first-serve percentage of 61.02% and an impressive 84.74% first-serve points won, significantly enhancing his chances to dominate service games. His second-serve performance is also solid at 55.14%, complemented by a high serve points won rate of 73.70%. Moreover, Dimitrov’s ability to save break points is noteworthy, with a BP save percentage of 54.31%. This resilience under pressure is critical on grass. In contrast, Fery's recent stats are untested, lacking data on his serve performance, which raises concerns about his ability to compete effectively against a seasoned player like Dimitrov. Given Dimitrov's superior form (20% win rate in last 5 matches) and strong serve metrics, he stands out as the value side in this matchup.

Wimbledon: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev — Alexander Zverev Moneyline (-263)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Alexander Zverev presents significant value at 1.38 against Jiri Lehecka based on recent performance metrics. Zverev's overall form is strong, holding a 90% win rate over his last 10 matches, while Lehecka struggles with an overall 42% win rate. On grass, Zverev excels with a first-serve percentage of approximately 78%, winning 80% of first-serve points, and 59% on second serves, showcasing his serve dominance. Moreover, Zverev's break point (BP) save percentage stands at an impressive 68.6%, indicating resilience under pressure. Conversely, Lehecka’s stats reflect poor serve performance, lacking key metrics such as first-serve points won, and showing vulnerability in pressure situations. Zverev's ability to win critical points, coupled with his superior serve metrics, makes him the stronger contender on grass, providing a solid edge in this matchup.