Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov — Carlos Alcaraz Moneyline (-1667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Carlos Alcaraz is the strong pick against Karen Khachanov at the Qatar Open, reflected by his superior recent form and serve performance. Alcaraz boasts a 40% win rate over his last five matches, with an impressive 65.2% first-serve percentage and 81.1% first-serve points won, significantly higher than Khachanov's 63.5% and 75.8%, respectively. Alcaraz's overall serve points won rate (72.5%) and second-serve points won (56.5%) also outshine Khachanov's (70.1%, 60.1%). Crucially, Alcaraz’s break point save percentage (26.7%) is stronger than Khachanov's (8.3%), indicating he can withstand pressure better. While Alcaraz has an ace rate of 12.5% compared to Khachanov's 3.8%, his lower double-fault rate (3.1% vs. 3.8%) enhances his reliability. The model probability (98%)

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