Today's Tennis Best Bets - Match Picks, In Plain English

Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 31 July 2026. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton: Alejandro Tabilo to win the match, priced at +300 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton: Alejandro Tabilo to win the match (+300)

Alejandro Tabilo faces Ben Shelton at Washington Open on Saturday 1 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alejandro Tabilo wins the match. It was priced at +300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $40 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Tabilo's recent hard court form showcases a robust first-serve percentage of 67.85% and a first-serve points won rate of 76%. His ability to win 50.8% of second-serve points and an exceptional break point save percentage of 88.89% highlight his resilience under pressure. In contrast, Shelton's current hard court performance metrics are untested, yielding no relevant data points, which raises concerns about his readiness. Tabilo's consistent serving and pressure point performance, coupled with a 40% win rate in his last five matches, indicates he is not only in form but also capable of capitalizing on Shelton's lack of competitive stats. These factors strongly support Tabilo as the value side in this matchup.

Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti: Lorenzo Musetti to win the match (+182)

Rafael Jodar faces Lorenzo Musetti at Washington Open on Friday 31 July 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Lorenzo Musetti wins the match. It was priced at +182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.20 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Musetti's recent form is impressive, boasting an 80% win rate over his last five matches, underscored by a robust average first-serve percentage of 70%. His ability to win 62% of first-serve points and 53% on second serves showcases his effective serve performance, critical on hard courts. Additionally, Musetti excels in pressure situations, with a remarkable 70% break point save rate, allowing him to fend off critical points effectively. Jodar's lack of competitive data raises concerns about his form and impact, making Musetti’s consistency and serve reliability a strong predictor in this match-up.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi Osaka: Naomi Osaka to win the match (-625)

Elisabetta Cocciaretto faces Naomi Osaka at Washington Open on Friday 31 July 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Naomi Osaka wins the match. It was priced at -625 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Osaka's recent form on hard courts shows a solid first-serve percentage of 64%, winning 72% of first-serve points and 45% of second-serve points. Her serve points won rate of 63% is significantly higher than Cocciaretto's overall performance metrics. Meanwhile, Osaka's ability to save break points (53.3%) adds to her resilience under pressure. In contrast, Cocciaretto struggles with serve statistics, facing opponents who maintain high winning rates on their serves (81.6% for serve points won). Additionally, Osaka's recent form reflects a win rate of 80% in her last five matches compared to Cocciaretto's less favorable performance. Overall, Osaka's superior serve metrics and recent form position her as a strong favorite in this matchup.

Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya: Anna Kalinskaya to win the match (+275)

Jessica Pegula faces Anna Kalinskaya at Washington Open on Friday 31 July 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Anna Kalinskaya wins the match. It was priced at +275 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $37.50 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. Anna Kalinskaya presents solid value at 3.75 against Jessica Pegula, highlighted by her recent hard-court form. Kalinskaya boasts a win rate of 60% over her last five matches, compared to Pegula's 50% in the same span. On hard courts, Kalinskaya has an impressive first-serve percentage of 64.6% and wins 62.9% of her first points, demonstrating solid serving efficiency. In contrast, her opponents achieve a 69.1% first-serve percentage against her, indicating she can handle pressure. Kalinskaya's second-serve points won at 42.0% and a break point save percentage of 44.1% further illustrate her resilience under pressure. This makes her the value side in this matchup.

Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonova: Liudmila Samsonova to win the match (+105)

Diana Shnaider faces Liudmila Samsonova at Washington Open on Friday 31 July 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Liudmila Samsonova wins the match. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Liudmila Samsonova offers value at 2.05 against Diana Shnaider, backed by key performance metrics. Samsonova's recent form shows a solid win rate of 60% over her last five matches, indicating strong momentum. On hard courts, she boasts a first-serve percentage of 55.4% and wins 61.5% of first-serve points, which are critical for maintaining service pressure. In contrast, Shnaider’s surface stats are untested, suggesting potential vulnerability. Additionally, Samsonova has a better second-serve points won rate (45.2%) compared to Shnaider’s unproven metrics. On break points, Samsonova's 39.9% success rate in saving opportunities suggests resilience under pressure, while her opponent struggles against established hard-court players.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.