On Sunday 23 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 191.5 Total Points, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 191.5 Total Points (-500)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
When the Phoenix Mercury host the Atlanta Dream, it's hard to ignore the potential for a defensive showdown. Both teams have struggled with consistency on offense this season, often leaning on their defenses to carry them through tough stretches. The Mercury, while explosive at times, have faced challenges finding their rhythm, particularly against disciplined defenses like Atlanta's. With both squads likely pushing the pace to their advantage, you can also expect a few more turnovers than normal, stifling scoring opportunities. Our model sees this matchup settling in the mid-160s, well below the 191.5 mark. Given the stakes and the playoff implications, expect both teams to focus on defense, making this total feel a bit inflated. With the backdrop of the PHX Arena and the stakes of the game, taking the under seems like a savvy play. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +5.5 on the Line (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
As the Phoenix Mercury gear up for a showdown against the Atlanta Dream, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest with a few fascinating layers. Phoenix, playing on their home court at PHX Arena, thrives in a fast-paced environment, and their high-octane offense is always a sight to behold. However, they'll be facing a Dream squad that's been surprisingly resilient, often rising to the occasion despite their underdog status. While our model suggests a narrow margin, the Mercury's explosive potential, especially led by their dynamic scorers, can tilt this game in their favor. The key will be whether Phoenix can leverage their home-court advantage, utilizing their speed to break down Atlanta's defense effectively. If they manage to establish a quick tempo, I believe they can cover the spread of 5.5 points and emerge victorious. Buckle up-this one could get exciting! It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Allisha Gray Over 19.5 Points and Assists (-238)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Allisha Gray Over 19.5 Points and Assists. That is a player points and assists combined bet. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is DeWanna Bonner Over 5.5 Rebounds. That is a player rebounds bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.80 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-189)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made. That is a player three-pointers made bet. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Atlanta Dream. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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