Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided data, betting on Rhamondre Stevenson to achieve under 38.5 rushing yards appears to be a sound decision. Stevenson's statistical trends suggest a pattern of underperformance, particularly in home games. His overall hit rate for the last 20 games is only 10% (2/20), and it's even lower in home games at 20% (4/20). In recent performances, he hasn't reached the 38.5-yard threshold in any of his last five games overall or at home. Furthermore, his current hit streaks for both overall and home games are at zero, indicating a recent pattern of not meeting this yardage target. Although his hit rate against the Chargers is better (50%), it's based on a small sample size of only two games. Given this data, the under 38.5 rushing yards is a reasonable bet.

Drake Maye (NE) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+255)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting data indicates that Drake Maye has struggled to score a touchdown recently. His overall hit rate over the last 20 matches is zero, with only two successful touchdowns in his entire career (2/30). This trend is consistent when playing at home (1/15 successful rate), against the Los Angeles Chargers (0/1), and specifically against the Chargers at home (0/1). His performance does not show a positive pattern that would suggest a high probability of scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game. Moreover, his hit rates for the last 3, 5, and 10 games, whether overall, at home, or against the Chargers, are all zero, indicating a current hit streak of zero. The model edge of 0.1649 suggests some positive odds, yet considering Maye's recent performance and trends, betting on him to score a touchdown appears to be a risky proposition.

Drake Maye (NE) Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Statistical analysis suggests a strong rationale for placing a bet on Drake Maye to achieve under 26.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds' market in the upcoming game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers. Recent performance data reveals that Maye has consistently fallen short of this target. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is only 1/20. Specifically, at home, his hit rate is 1/15 while against the Chargers, it stands at 0/1. His performance at home against the Chargers is also subpar, with a hit rate of 0/1. The hit rate over the last 5 games, whether overall or at home or against the Chargers, is 0. This consistent underperformance, coupled with a model edge of 0.163641095800602, indicates that it's statistically likely for Maye to rush for less than 26.5 yards in the upcoming game.

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