SYSTEM STATUS: Online WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) WIN: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) WIN: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) WIN: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) WIN: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1 @ +154) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -101) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 @ -106) RESULT: WON: Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres (Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 @ +162) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +139) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1 @ +291) RESULT: WON: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +330) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320) RESULT: WON: Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants (Greater Western Sydney Giants @ +136) RESULT: WON: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Colorado Rockies 5.5 @ +320)
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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Andrés Chaparro is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +13.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 12, 7:13AM UTC
MLB

Andrés Chaparro

MLB

+13.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Over 0.5 -143 (1.70)
+13.1% Edge
New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals
Nationals Park, Washington
Fri 10 Jul, 10:45PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.9%
Implied Probability
58.8%
Model Edge
+13.1%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits71.9%58.8%1.39+13.1%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 25 times (0%), +0.6% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Andrés Chaparro (NA) Over 0.5 Hits (-143)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Nationals gear up to face the Yankees, all eyes should be on Andrés Chaparro. He’s been a revelation this season, consistently finding ways to get on base, especially against right-handed pitching, which is crucial tonight. With the Yankees rolling out a righty, Chaparro’s batting average against them is telling; he's been a nuisance for opposing pitchers, boasting a hit rate that suggests he’ll come through at least once. The Yankees' bullpen has shown vulnerabilities lately, and with the Nationals' lineup coming alive, it’s the perfect storm for Chaparro to capitalize on. His knack for connecting with pitches and the recent trends showing him in the zone make the over on 0.5 hits an enticing play. Given his model prediction is over a full hit, this feels like a solid bet, especially as the Nationals have the home advantage and the crowd backing them. Expect Chaparro to deliver when it counts.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)
Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 66.7% (2/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 0.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Runs Scored 0.5 Over +115 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Andrés Chaparro is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (2/3). The latest model pick for Andrés Chaparro is Over 0.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.1% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals on Friday 10 July at Nationals Park, Washington. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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