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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Miami Marlins

Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 12:51PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Tue 5 Aug 2025, 10:40PM
0
Game Picks
13
Player Props
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Game picks

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Hayden Wesneski SPOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut

Probable pitcher

Tatsuya Imai SP

Miami Marlins

  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • John King RPOut
  • Josh Ekness RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Phillips SP
Availability updated Jul 22, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cal Quantrill MIA Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cal Quantrill MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jeremy Pena HOU Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Dane Myers MIA Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cal Quantrill MIA Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Miami Marlins — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Xavier Edwards. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros stats and odds.</p>

Xavier Edwards (MIA) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Xavier Edwards for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice based on Edwards' recent performance data. His last five overall games and home games show no stolen bases, indicating a current lack of success in this area. Although he has a current hit streak, it's important to note that hits do not directly correlate to stolen bases. Furthermore, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate at home is 0.2, suggesting that when he does attempt to steal, he's often unsuccessful. His performance against the Astros is slightly better with an average of 0.3 stolen bases, but this is still lower than the line of 0.5. Therefore, the statistics suggest that Edwards is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a good choice.

Xavier Edwards (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Xavier Edwards has shown consistent performance in his last five games. His overall hits average stands at 0.6, which is above the line set at 0.5. His performance at home games is even more promising, with an average of 1.4 hits. When playing against the Houston Astros, his hits average is 1, again surpassing the line. Although his current home hit streak is zero, his overall hit streak stands at 1, indicating a potential continuation of his hitting form. Furthermore, his plate appearance averages, both overall (4.8) and at home (5), suggest he will have ample opportunities to hit. These statistics collectively indicate a high likelihood of Edwards hitting over 0.5 in the upcoming game, making this bet a solid choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 August 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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