On Sunday 23 August 2026, Mason Jones takes on MarQuel Mederos in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 2.5 Total Rounds, priced at +174 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 2.5 Total Rounds (+174)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

Mason Jones and MarQuel Mederos are both strong fighters, but they have different styles. Jones is known for his striking, while Mederos can be a finisher. Our numbers suggest this fight might not go the distance, and we think they could end it early. Betting on less than 2.5 rounds means you're hoping for a quick finish, which seems likely here. Just remember, in fights anything can happen, and while our numbers like this bet, there are no guarantees. It was priced at +174 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27.40 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Marquel Mederos to Win (+260)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Mason Jones takes on MarQuel Mederos in the UFC on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Marquel Mederos to Win. That is a match winner bet. It was priced at +260 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $36 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • MarQuel Mederos: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 439 days since the last fight
  • Mason Jones: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 152 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Mason Jones v MarQuel Mederos. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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