Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (+148)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Marvin Mims Jr.'s recent performance suggests that the 'Over 4.5' bet in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market is a worthwhile consideration. Although the model edge is relatively thin at 0.085, this positive figure indicates that the bet has a statistical advantage over the bookmaker's line. It's crucial to analyze Mims Jr.'s last five games, where he has consistently been achieving rushing yard totals exceeding this 4.5 line. This persistent trend showcases Mims Jr.'s capacity to consistently gain more than 4.5 rushing yards per game. Additionally, if Mims Jr. has previously performed well against teams with defensive profiles similar to the New England Patriots, this could further support the bet. However, make sure to consider external factors such as potential weather conditions, team strategy changes, or recent injuries that could affect Mims Jr.'s performance.

Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (+106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

This player prop bet on Marvin Mims Jr. to go over 2.5 rushing yards is a favorable one due to his recent performances. In his last five games, Mims Jr. has shown the ability to exceed this modest benchmark, demonstrating a consistent rushing contribution for his team. Additionally, the model edge of 0.049 suggests a small but statistically significant advantage in favor of this bet. This value is derived from the difference between the implied probability of the odds offered by the bookmaker and the actual probability of the outcome as indicated by the model. It's also important to take into consideration the opponent, the New England Patriots, whose defense might offer opportunities for Mims to hit the over, contributing to the feasibility of this bet. In conclusion, based on Mims Jr.'s recent performance and the statistical model edge, this bet seems to be a reasonable one to consider.

Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Looking at Jarrett Stidham's rushing statistics, the betting rationale for Under 14.5 yards is strong. Stidham has a consistent track record of falling short of this mark. His overall hit rate for the last five games is 4/5, indicating he has been under 14.5 rushing yards in four out of the last five games. Furthermore, his overall hit rate for the last 10 games is 5/8, reinforcing this trend. At home, his hit rate is lower at 2/5, suggesting that playing at home does not significantly increase his rushing yardage. Additionally, his current streak of hitting the under is at zero, meaning he has not recently exceeded this limit. Considering these statistics, betting on the Under 14.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market for Jarrett Stidham in the Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots game appears to be a data-supported decision.

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