Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Caleb Williams for under 18.5 rushing yards in the Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game is supported by several negative trends in his recent performance. Williams has consistently failed to meet this mark in most contexts. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games is 0, 0, 0, and 2 respectively, indicating a sustained lack of performance. His hit rate at home games is similarly poor, with a 0 hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games, and only 3 hits in the last 20 games. Against the Packers, his hit rate is slightly better (1/2), but this does not hold up in home games against the Packers (0/1). Additionally, his overall current hit streak is 0. The only positive trend is a current hit streak of 1 against the Packers, but this is not enough to outweigh the overwhelmingly negative trends.

D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided data, betting on D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers seems a risky proposition, given his recent performance. Swift's overall hit rate is 31.14% (19/61), which is relatively low. His performance specifically at home is slightly better with a hit rate of 38.7% (12/31), but his recent performance shows a downward trend, with a 0% hit rate in his last 5 and 10 overall games, and his last 3 and 5 home games. However, his performance against the Green Bay Packers shows a more optimistic picture. He has scored in 2 out of 4 games (50% hit rate) against them overall, and 1 out of 2 games (50% hit rate) at home. His current hit streak against the Packers is also 2, suggesting he performs well against this specific team.

DJ Moore (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

DJ Moore has been a consistent key player in recent games, which makes betting on him for 'player_anytime_td' a strong consideration. His statistical performance over the last five games shows an uptick in performance, with an increased average of touchdowns per game. This shows that Moore is not only capable of scoring, but is also consistently doing so. Moreover, the model edge of 0.047685059750418 indicates a slight advantage on this bet. This is the difference between the implied probability of the odds and the probability of the outcome, suggesting that there's a value in this bet. Although the Bears have a formidable defense, Moore's recent form and the Packers' offensive capabilities provide a reasonable likelihood of him scoring a touchdown at some point in the game. Therefore, betting on DJ Moore for 'Yes' in the 'player_anytime_td' market seems statistically justified.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro