Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 174.5 Player pass yds alternate (-270)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Caleb Williams to throw for over 174.5 yards against the Green Bay Packers is a risky proposition given his recent performance and hit rates. Over the last 5 games, Williams has not hit the over mark even once, with a 0/5 overall hit rate and a 0/5 home hit rate. His performance against the Packers doesn't inspire much confidence either, as he has only hit the over in 1 of the last 2 encounters, maintaining a 50% hit rate. However, his performance against the Packers at home seems promising, as he has hit the over 100% of the time in the last game played at home against them. Despite this, his overall hit rate remains low at 9/34, suggesting a low likelihood of him surpassing the 174.5 yards mark. The model edge of about 0.098 also indicates a slightly unfavorable betting scenario.

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 179.5 Player pass yds alternate (-227)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Caleb Williams to achieve Over 179.5 passing yards in the 'player_pass_yds_alternate' market for the Bears vs Packers game seems statistically unfavorable. Williams has struggled to hit this mark in recent performances. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is only 1/20, and his last 10 games show a hit rate of 0/10. Williams' performance at home is slightly better, with a hit rate of 5/17 over the last 20 games, but he still falls short of the projected passing yards. However, when playing against the Packers at home, Williams has consistently hit this mark, with a hit rate of 1/1. Despite this, his overall recent performance suggests that achieving over 179.5 passing yards will be challenging. Thus, unless you value the specific context of playing against the Packers at home, the bet seems risky based on the overall and recent data.

Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate (+154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Cole Kmet to achieve over 19.5 reception yards in the upcoming Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game seems promising, particularly when considering his performance against Green Bay. Kmet has a strong track record playing against the Packers, hitting this mark in 4 of the last 5 and 4 of the last 6 overall matchups. His performance at home further substantiates this bet. He has a perfect track record against the Packers at home, hitting this mark in all 3 previous encounters. While his overall and recent performance might raise concerns (0 hits in the last 10 games), his specific performance against the Packers and at home suggests a high likelihood of him exceeding 19.5 reception yards in the upcoming game. This specific context makes this bet a statistically informed choice despite Kmet's recent struggles.

D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown anytime in the upcoming Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game seems challenging. His overall recent performance and hit rates are notably weak; he has not scored a touchdown in his last 10 games overall or at home. However, when focusing on his performance specifically against the Green Bay Packers, Swift's stats improve. He has scored in 2 out of his last 4 games against the Packers and on 1 out of 2 occasions at home. His current hit streak specifically against the Packers is also at 2, suggesting that Swift tends to perform better against this specific team. Nevertheless, considering his broader recent performance, the bet seems risky. It’s best to place this bet with awareness of Swift's overall recent lack of touchdowns but noting his relative success against the Packers.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : Under 45.5 Total Points (-106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The key rationale for betting on the 'Under' in the 'totals' market for this NFL game is rooted in the recent performance data of both teams. The home team's overall last five games' score has averaged 25.6, while the away team's average is 19.4. Adding these up gives a combined score of 45, which is already below the threshold of 45.5. Furthermore, the away team's performance has been notably weaker, with a point differential of -7.4 and a negative EPA differential in both overall and home-away last five games. Meanwhile, the home team's scoring against stats have also been relatively low. This suggests that both teams may struggle to rack up points, pushing the total score below the predicted mark. The model's edge of 0.0405 also indicates a slight advantage in favor of the 'Under' bet.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : Under 45.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The "Under 45.5" bet in the totals market for this game is supported by several key statistics from both teams' last five games. The home team has an average score of 25.6, while the away team has a lower average of 19.4. The combined average of these scores is 45, which is under the total points line of 45.5. Moreover, the away team's defensive performance has been stronger, with their opposition scoring an average of 26.8 points, compared to the home team's 21.6 points, suggesting a potential for a low-scoring game. Furthermore, the away team's overall point differential over the last five games stands at -7.4, indicating their struggle to outscore their opponents. The teams also have a combined turnover difference of 0.4 (home team’s 1 minus away team’s -0.6), which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities. Finally, the

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