Parlays are the most popular bet type, but also the most dangerous for your bankroll. The key to winning isn't luck; it's understanding the math of correlation and risk.
Answer-first
Parlay Betting Strategy involves linking multiple bets (legs) to increase the potential payout. To be profitable, you must avoid "lottery ticket" parlays (4+ legs), focus on Correlated Parlays (where one win increases the likelihood of another), and ensure each individual leg has Positive Expected Value (+EV).
1. The Math of Risk (Why you lose)
Every leg you add multiplies the bookmaker's edge (vig). A 3-leg parlay might offer 6-to-1 odds, but the true probability of hitting three 50/50 outcomes is 12.5% (1 in 8).
2. The Power of Correlation
The "Holy Grail" of parlays is correlation. This means if Leg A wins, Leg B is *more likely* to win.
CORRELATION EXAMPLE
Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes Over 300 Passing Yards.
Leg 2: Travis Kelce Over 80 Receiving Yards.
> These events are linked. If Mahomes throws for 300+, it is highly probable Kelce caught many of those yards. This reduces variance.
3. Only Stack +EV Bets
Never add a "filler" leg just to boost the odds. A parlay is only as strong as its weakest link. If you combine two +EV bets, you multiply your edge. If you combine a +EV bet with a negative EV bet, you destroy your value.
4. Keep it Small
Limit your parlays to 2 or 3 legs. The probability of winning a 2-leg parlay is roughly 25%. The probability of winning a 10-leg parlay is roughly 0.1%. Stick to the 2-3 leg sweet spot to balance risk and reward.
FAQ
Are Same Game Parlays (SGPs) worth it?
SGPs are fun, but sportsbooks often charge higher "vig" (worse odds) on them because they know the outcomes are correlated. Always check the payout against the true probability.