Best MLB Parlay Picks Today, Tuesday 07/07 (7-Leg) : Beat the Books

As the Dodgers gear up to face the Rockies, all eyes will be on Dalton Rushing, but betting on him to hit over 2.5 doubles is a risky proposition. Rushing's recent performances have shown a dip in extra-base hits, with opponents adept at limiting his opportunities. The Rockies, despite their reputation for being a hitter-friendly team, have surprisingly tightened their defensive metrics against left-handed batters, making doubles harder to come by. Moreover, Rushing is up against a Rockies pitching staff that has been remarkably effective in minimizing extra-base hits, as evidenced by their recent games. With the Dodgers boasting a potent lineup, it’s tempting to think Rushing might thrive, but the under on his doubles feels more likely given the matchup. With an implied probability of 95.2% for staying under 2.5, this is a bet that shows value when looking at the current trends and pitching dynamics.

Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-5000)

In the upcoming clash between the Padres and Diamondbacks, all eyes should be on Geraldo Perdomo's base-running prowess—well, at least for those who bet on the over. With Perdomo's recent tendency to stay put, opting for smart base-running over aggressive steals, an under on 1.5 stolen bases feels like a prudent play. He’s been swiped just one time in his last ten games, a stark contrast to his earlier season energy. The Padres' pitching staff has a knack for keeping runners at bay, boasting one of the lower stolen base allowances in the league. With their ability to control the game and Perdomo's cautious approach, it’s hard to envision him breaking loose for two steals against this tough Padres lineup. In a game that could see heightened focus on pitching duels, expect Perdomo to be more of a base-sitter than a base-thief.

Heliot Ramos (SFG) Under 3.5 RBIs (-2500)

As the Giants host the Blue Jays, Heliot Ramos finds himself in a challenging spot for RBIs. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, his recent form suggests he might struggle to cross that 3.5 threshold tonight. The Blue Jays' pitching has been formidable lately, with a rotation that has kept opposing batsmen in check. They boast an impressive strikeout rate, which could spell trouble for Ramos, especially considering he’s been prone to swings-and-misses against quality arms. On the other side, the Giants’ lineup has had a few inconsistencies, limiting the opportunities for Ramos to drive in runs. The last few matchups have seen Ramos falling short of that number, and with the pressure of a well-rounded Jays bullpen looming, it’s hard to envision him breaking through for four RBIs tonight. With the stakes high and the odds favoring the under, it feels like a safe bet to expect Ramos to stay under that line.

Rafael Devers (BOS) Under 2.5 Walks (-833)

As the Giants welcome the Blue Jays to Oracle Park, all eyes will be on Rafael Devers, but betting on him to walk more than twice might be a stretch. Let’s look at his recent performance: Devers has been swinging aggressively, racking up a low walk rate this season. With the Giants' pitching staff boasting a solid strikeout rate, they’re known for keeping hitters off balance, which likely means Devers will be swinging more than waiting for his pitch. Additionally, he’s facing a formidable lefty, whose ability to command the strike zone has been impressive lately. The matchup screams for an aggressive approach from Devers, and his recent history against left-handers shows he often opts to put the ball in play rather than take the walk. With the odds stacked against him reaching that 2.5 mark, the smart play here is to back the under.

Kyle Tucker (HOU) Under 2.5 Singles (-323)

As the Dodgers gear up to face the Rockies, all eyes should be on Kyle Tucker’s singles production, particularly with the line set at 2.5. Tucker has had a solid season, but facing the Dodgers’ elite pitching staff could be a challenge. The Los Angeles bullpen has been a fortress at home, surrendering just 3.50 runs per game, making it tough for any batter to find their groove. Moreover, Tucker's recent form shows a dip in his ability to connect for singles, especially against right-handed pitchers—a category where the Dodgers excel. With the line set at 2.5 and a model prediction suggesting he’ll come in much lower, the under feels like a savvy play. Consider the Rockies' overall struggles on the road and the Dodgers' recent trend of stifling opposing batters, and it’s easy to see why this outcome is likely. Expect a tight game, and Tucker may find it tough to string hits together tonight.

Willy Adames (MIL) Under 2.5 Walks (-1429)

As the Giants gear up to face the Blue Jays, all eyes will be on Willy Adames and his propensity for drawing walks. However, a closer look at recent trends reveals a compelling case for the 'Under 2.5' on his walks today. Adames has been facing a Giants pitching staff that's been stingy in this department, allowing the fewest walks in the league lately. Moreover, Adames himself has struggled to find his rhythm at the plate against right-handed pitchers, and with San Francisco's ace on the mound, he may find it even tougher to get on base via the free pass. The Giants are in a must-win mindset, and their pitchers have been dialed in, making it unlikely that Adames will see more than two walks. Given these factors, wagering on the 'Under' here feels like a savvy play as the game unfolds.