Isaiah Likely (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical analysis does not favor Isaiah Likely scoring a touchdown (TD) in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Likely's overall hit rate is low, with only 12 touchdowns in 53 games. Specifically, his recent performance has also been unimpressive, with no touchdowns in the last five games overall and at home. His record against Cincinnati is also not encouraging, with just one touchdown in five matchups. Additionally, when playing against Cincinnati at home, Likely hasn't scored any touchdowns in two games. His current hit streaks are zero overall and at home, and only one against Cincinnati. While the model edge is 0.179675041881006, which indicates a slight advantage, the empirical data overall suggests that Likely scoring a touchdown is statistically unlikely. Therefore, based on the historical data and recent performance, betting on Isaiah Likely to score a touchdown in this game might be a risky proposition.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Keaton Mitchell for Under 17.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market is statistically supported. Mitchell's recent performance and trends indicate a difficulty in achieving this mark. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 2/15, implying that he has surpassed 17.5 rushing yards only twice in these games. His performance at home and against Cincinnati Bengals is also not promising, with a hit rate of 0/1, indicating he hasn't crossed this mark in those specific situations. His current hit streak overall, at home, and against Cincinnati Bengals, is 0, suggesting a lack of momentum. Considering these factors, Mitchell's likelihood of achieving more than 17.5 rushing yards in this game against the Bengals is statistically low, making the Under 17.5 bet a logical choice.

Mark Andrews (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mark Andrews' betting rationale lies in his performance against Cincinnati Bengals, particularly at home. His overall hit rate against Cincinnati is 60% (3/5) and increases to 66.67% (2/3) when playing at home. This trend has remained consistent over his last 10 and 20 games against the Bengals, maintaining a 60% hit rate overall and a 66.67% hit rate at home. Although his recent overall and home hit rates haven't been promising (0/3 and 0/5 respectively), it's important to note that these records are against different teams. Andrews' record improves significantly when playing against Cincinnati. Furthermore, Andrews is currently on a hit streak of 1 against Cincinnati, both overall and at home, implying a momentum that could carry over to this game. The model also shows a slight edge of 0.037139407972529. Despite recent performances, the specific matchup against the Bengals suggests a favourable outcome for Andrews.

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