Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical trend suggests backing Jonathan Taylor to record Under 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game. Taylor's recent performances indicate a downward trajectory in his reception yards. Over his last five games, both overall and at home, he has not managed to surpass this mark, representing a 0/5 hit rate. Furthermore, over his last ten games, he has only exceeded 21.5 receiving yards three times at home and not at all overall. His overall current hit streak is also zero. Despite a moderate model edge of 0.17, the data strongly implies that Taylor is not expected to have a high receiving yard game against the 49ers. Therefore, the Under 21.5 bet in the 'player_reception_yds' market for Jonathan Taylor seems a statistically sound wager.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Based on the provided data, betting on Jonathan Taylor to have under 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the San Francisco 49ers seems like a logical choice. Taylor's recent performance indicates a trend towards not achieving this mark. He has failed to hit the over in his last 5 games (both overall and at home), and his overall hit rate in his last 20 games is only 30% (6/20). His performance at home is slightly better, with a hit rate of 55% (11/20), but this still demonstrates a tendency towards falling under the 21.5 mark. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is at 0, reinforcing this trend. The model also indicates a 15.99% edge in favor of the under outcome. Therefore, the statistics suggest that betting under 21.5 for Taylor's reception yards is a reasonable decision.

Alec Pierce (IND) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Alec Pierce to go under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is largely based on his recent performance and hit rate trends. Pierce has been struggling to achieve this mark consistently, as shown by his overall hit rate, which stands at 16 out of 61 attempts. This translates to a hit rate of approximately 26%, implying that he has failed to surpass 20.5 yards in about 74% of his games. His performance at home games is slightly better with a hit rate of 7 out of 30, about 23%, but still below par. In his last 20 overall and home games, he has only surpassed the 20.5 yards mark 2 and 5 times respectively. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is at zero, indicating his recent struggles. Therefore, betting under 20.5 yards seems to be a statistically grounded decision.

Alec Pierce (IND) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Alec Pierce to have under 20.5 reception yards in the upcoming Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers game is backed by several consistent data trends. In Pierce's recent performance, he has consistently fallen short of the 20.5 reception yards mark. His overall hit rate for the last 20 games stands at just 10% (2/20), indicating that he rarely surpasses this threshold. When playing at home, this rate improves slightly to 25% (5/20), but still suggests the 'Under' outcome is more likely. Moreover, his hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games are all below par, with a current hit streak of zero both overall and at home. This consistent pattern of underperformance, combined with a model edge of 0.142, strongly supports a bet for Pierce to stay under 20.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.

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