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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alec Pierce is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +14.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
NFL

Alec Pierce

IND

+14.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 20.5 -112 (1.89)
+14.2% Edge
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
QUESTIONABLESeason pending
Pierce (ankle) revealed Wednesday that he underwent surgery this spring after not getting the results he wanted from a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection at the start of the offseason, JJ Stankevitz of Colts.com reports.
updated Jun 10, 7:29PM UTC · 40d old
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Model Probability
67.1%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+14.2%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards67.1%52.9%1.49+14.2%

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AI Analysis

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Alec Pierce (IND) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Alec Pierce to go under 20.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is largely based on his recent performance and hit rate trends. Pierce has been struggling to achieve this mark consistently, as shown by his overall hit rate, which stands at 16 out of 61 attempts. This translates to a hit rate of approximately 26%, implying that he has failed to surpass 20.5 yards in about 74% of his games. His performance at home games is slightly better with a hit rate of 7 out of 30, about 23%, but still below par. In his last 20 overall and home games, he has only surpassed the 20.5 yards mark 2 and 5 times respectively. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is at zero, indicating his recent struggles. Therefore, betting under 20.5 yards seems to be a statistically grounded decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted
20.5typical line · receiving yds
tips tracked1

Alec Pierce's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 20.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alec Pierce (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alec Pierce is Under 20.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.2% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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