Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Alec Pierce is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 22 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 22%, the price says 7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 2:57AM UTC
NFL
Alec Pierce
IND
Alec Pierce has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $1,500 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+1400 (15.00) · $100→$1,500
Value call
Baltimore Ravens
@
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis · Indoor
Sun 13 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 174 of 355 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Pierce (heel) was a full participant in Friday's practice and doesn't carry an injury designation for Sunday's game at Kansas City.
updated Sep 18, 8:01PM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
22 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 22.1% · before adjusting for past results 22.1% · the book's price implies 6.7% · gap +15.4%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 22.1% | 22.1% | 6.7% | 15.00 | +15.4% |
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Alec Pierce (IND) Yes Player last td (+1400)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Indianapolis Colts play Baltimore Ravens in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alec Pierce (IND) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $150 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formReceiving Yards81 lines trackedNo line posted 46.5typical line · receiving yds
line range9.5–49.5model over64%tips tracked81
Alec Pierce's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 81 times, typically around a 46.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted 2.5typical line · receptions
line range2.5–2.5tips tracked2
Alec Pierce's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 2.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
35%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Alec Pierce's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 35%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Total Touchdowns |
1.5 |
Over |
+2700 |
✗ MISS |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
49.5 |
Over |
+102 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
46.5 |
Over |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 13 Sep 26 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts |
Receiving Yards (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Alec Pierce (IND) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alec Pierce is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.4% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts on Sunday 13 September at Indianapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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