Us Open: Victoria Azarenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova — Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Moneyline (-175)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova holds significant value against Victoria Azarenka at 1.57 due to her superior recent form and serve performance. Pavlyuchenkova has an impressive 80% win rate over her last 5 matches, compared to Azarenka's inconsistent performance. On hard courts, Pavlyuchenkova showcases a first serve percentage of 54.4% and wins 68.9% of her first serve points, indicating strong serving ability under pressure. In contrast, Azarenka's opponent pressure stats reveal she struggles more, with a 52% serve points won and slightly lower BP save percentage of 46.9%. Pavlyuchenkova also benefits from a favorable 51.5% second serve points won, while Azarenka's opponents capitalize at a higher rate. Importantly, Pavlyuchenkova has a better overall win form against Azarenka, providing a solid edge (25.4%) in this matchup. These factors collectively suggest Pavlyuchenkova is poised for success.

Us Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jerome Kym — Brandon Nakashima Moneyline (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Brandon Nakashima presents significant value at odds of 1.29 against Jerome Kym, boasting a model probability of 97.74%, indicating a strong edge. Over his last five matches, Nakashima has maintained a solid first-serve percentage of 71.41%, with a first-serve points won rate of 74.45%. His second-serve points won rate stands at 48.55%, showcasing resilience under pressure. His break point save percentage is impressive at 72.29%, reflecting his ability to fend off critical points effectively. In contrast, there is limited data on Kym, suggesting he may struggle against Nakashima’s superior serve and experience on hard courts. Given Nakashima's recent form (20% win rate over the last five games) combined with his consistent serving metrics, he is well-positioned to capitalize on any pressure Kym may face. Overall, Nakashima's robust serving statistics and favorable match context strongly favor him for this encounter.

Us Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry — Jiri Lehecka Moneyline (-400)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Jiri Lehecka presents substantial value at 1.25 against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, supported by strong recent form and superior serving metrics. In his last five matches, Lehecka has a first-serve percentage of 61.0%, winning 74.7% of first-serve points and 41.0% of second-serve points. His overall serve points won rate stands at 61.5%, while he successfully saves 52.4% of break points. Conversely, Etcheverry has struggled significantly, with no recorded data on his recent performance, indicating vulnerability on hard courts. Lehecka has a win rate of 60% over his last five matches and 70% over ten, illustrating solid form. The predictive metrics, especially in serve performance and break point efficiency, strongly favor Lehecka as he capitalizes on pressure points more effectively. With an implied probability of 80% versus a model probability of 98%, Lehecka's odds offer an appealing value edge of 18.0%.