Wimbledon: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff — Coco Gauff Moneyline (-143)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Coco Gauff presents significant value at 1.7 against Belinda Bencic in this Wimbledon matchup. Gauff boasts an impressive 80% win rate over her last five matches, indicating strong recent form. On grass, she excels with a first-serve percentage of 54.2% and wins 77.7% of first-serve points, outperforming Bencic's average of 68.3% overall. Gauff's second-serve efficiency is also robust, winning 44.7% compared to Bencic's 37.9%. Moreover, Gauff's ability to save break points (36.1%) is superior to Bencic's 50.6%, highlighting her resilience under pressure. Additionally, Bencic's recent overall form shows only a 54.9% serve points win rate, suggesting vulnerability against Gauff's aggressive baseline play and serve. With a model probability of 86.9%, Gauff is the clear value pick in this matchup.

Wimbledon: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka — Aryna Sabalenka Moneyline (-238)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In the upcoming match at Wimbledon, Aryna Sabalenka presents significant value at 1.42 against Naomi Osaka. Sabalenka boasts a formidable recent form with an 80% win rate over her last five matches, highlighting her consistency. On grass, she has excelled with a first-serve percentage of 62.5% and a first-serve points won rate of 74.7%, crucial for maintaining pressure on opponents. Conversely, Osaka's struggles are evident; her recent form shows lower serve effectiveness and a lack of pressure-point success. Sabalenka's ability to save break points (35.8%) further strengthens her case against an opponent who has not demonstrated strong serve performance recently. With a model probability of 98% compared to the implied probability of 70.4%, the edge of 27.6% indicates a strong belief in Sabalenka's superiority on grass. Thus, backing her is a data-driven choice.

Wimbledon: Karolina Muchova vs Barbora Krejcikova — Karolina Muchova Moneyline (-172)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Karolina Muchova is the value pick at 1.58 against Barbora Krejcikova, given her superior recent form and serve performance on grass. Muchova boasts a 60% win rate over her last five matches, with notable serve stats: a first-serve percentage of 70.73% and a first-serve points won rate of 52.88%. On grass, her serve points won percentage jumps to 58.44%, indicating strong effectiveness on this surface. Additionally, Muchova's break point save percentage of 56.82% reflects her ability to perform under pressure, while her ace rate (8.67%) suggests she can capitalize on service games. Krejcikova has not shown comparable stats, and Muchova's overall model probability of 90.38% significantly exceeds the implied market probability of 63.29%, providing a robust edge of 27.1%. This combination of metrics underscores Muchova's value as the likely winner in this matchup.

Wimbledon: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Fery — Zizou Bergs Moneyline (-139)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Zizou Bergs presents significant value at 1.72 against Arthur Fery, bolstered by a robust recent form on grass. Over his last five matches, Bergs has maintained a first-serve percentage of 58% and won 70% of his first serve points, indicating strong serving reliability. His overall serve points won rate stands at 63.5%, while he excels in breaking pressure with an impressive 84% break point save rate. In contrast, Fery’s serve metrics are unknown, suggesting he may face a challenge against Bergs' consistent pressure. Bergs’ recent win rate of 40% may not seem stellar, but his surface-specific performance is notably better, with a 71% first points won rate on grass. This combination of serving efficiency and high break point resilience positions Bergs as the clear favorite, with a model probability of 73.7% offering a solid edge of 15.6%.

Wimbledon: Elise Mertens vs Elena Rybakina — Elena Rybakina Moneyline (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Elena Rybakina is the clear value side against Elise Mertens, primarily due to her superior serve performance and recent form. Rybakina boasts a 80% win rate in her last five matches, significantly outpacing Mertens’ recent form. Her grass-court statistics highlight a first serve percentage of 54.5%, with an impressive 76% of first points won and a solid 62.5% serve points won overall. Notably, Rybakina's break point save percentage is 65.8%, allowing her to maintain composure under pressure. In contrast, Mertens struggles with a lower overall serve points won rate of 61.6% and a break point save percentage of only 45.3%, indicating vulnerability when facing break points. Additionally, Rybakina's recent form and higher ace rate of 8.8% compared to Mertens’ 6.9% further solidify her as the more formidable opponent on this grass surface. The statistical edge, combined with her strong recent performances, makes R

Wimbledon: Roman Safiullin vs Novak Djokovic — Novak Djokovic Moneyline (-588)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Novak Djokovic presents significant value at 1.17 against Roman Safiullin, particularly considering his recent grass-court form. Djokovic boasts an impressive 70.8% first-serve percentage on grass in his last five matches, winning 79.4% of first serve points. In comparison, Safiullin's overall win rate is only 60% over his last five matches, indicating a lack of elite form. Djokovic's average second-serve points won (60%) and BP save percentage (42.2%) also highlight his ability to perform under pressure, while Safiullin struggles to match these metrics. Djokovic's ace rate (16%) far surpasses Safiullin's (7.9%), further establishing his serving superiority. Given Djokovic's strong track record and current form, alongside Safiullin's inconsistencies, Djokovic is the clear choice for this matchup, making the odds a solid investment.