Indian Wells: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud — Casper Ruud Moneyline (-625)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Casper Ruud offers substantial value at 1.16 against Alexander Shevchenko due to his superior recent form and serve performance. Ruud's last five matches show a first-serve percentage of 69.12% with a first-serve points won rate of 67.19%. His ability to win over 61% of all serve points and save break points effectively (BP save % of 118.75%) indicates strong service reliability under pressure. In contrast, Shevchenko's recent win rate of just 40% over his last five matches, along with his significantly lower opponent serve metrics (first points won at 80.65% and second points won at 55.56%), suggests vulnerability against Ruud's strong serve. With Ruud's model probability at 98% compared to the bookmaker’s implied probability of 86.21%, the edge of 11.8% makes him a highly favorable pick in this matchup.

Indian Wells: Storm Hunter vs Belinda Bencic — Belinda Bencic Moneyline (-909)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Belinda Bencic is the clear value pick against Storm Hunter in their upcoming match. Recent form shows Bencic with a solid 60% win rate over her last five matches, outperforming Hunter's 60% as well, but she exhibits superior serving metrics. On hard courts, Bencic boasts a first-serve percentage of 55.6% with points won at 64.4%, significantly better than Hunter's overall averages. Bencic's second-serve points won rate of 44.4% also surpasses Hunter's 41.3%. Bencic's break-point save percentage of 53.7% is strong, and her ability to pressure opponents is highlighted by Hunter’s low BP save rate of 88.9%. Additionally, Hunter's higher double fault rate (6.2%) compared to Bencic’s (7.3%) could lead to crucial points for Bencic. With an implied probability of 90% against a model probability of 98%, Bencic represents excellent value at 1.11.