Aus Open Singles: Magdalena Frech vs Jasmine Paolini — Jasmine Paolini Moneyline (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jasmine Paolini presents a strong value pick against Magdalena Frech, with a model probability of 97.8% compared to the market's 86.9% implied probability. Paolini's recent form is solid, with a win rate of 60% over her last five matches. Her serve performance stands out, boasting a first-serve percentage of 61.7% and winning 69.1% of first-serve points, which is significantly higher than Frech's opponent averages (first points won at 57.3%). Moreover, Paolini's ability to save break points (51.3%) is crucial, especially against Frech, who has a lower overall serve points won percentage (52.0%). Paolini's strong metrics on hard courts combined with Frech's struggles to capitalize on serve opportunities (43.6% second points won) suggest she will dominate pressure points. Given these indicators, Paolini is well-positioned to secure a convincing victory.

Aus Open Singles: Emilio Nava vs Cameron Norrie — Cameron Norrie Moneyline (-909)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Cameron Norrie is a strong pick against Emilio Nava, given his superior recent form and serve performance on hard court. Norrie boasts a high first-serve percentage of 71.5% and wins 68.4% of his first-serve points, showing consistent pressure and effectiveness when serving. His second-serve points won rate of 63.2% further demonstrates resilience under pressure. Additionally, he has a solid break point save percentage of 69.3%, indicating his ability to handle critical moments. In contrast, Nava's recent form is not as strong, with a win rate of only 60% in his last five matches. Norrie’s overall model probability (94.2%) compared to the implied probability (90.1%) suggests there is value at the current odds of 1.11. Given these statistics, Norrie’s edge in serve performance and experience on hard courts makes him a compelling bet.