Wimbledon: Maria Sakkari vs Clara Tauson — Maria Sakkari Moneyline (+151)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Maria Sakkari presents value at 2.51 against Clara Tauson, supported by superior recent form and serve performance on grass. Over her last five matches, Sakkari has a 40% win rate, with a notable 60.7% first-serve percentage and 63.3% first-serve points won on grass. Her second-serve points won rate stands at 43.4%, highlighting her ability to secure points under pressure. Additionally, Sakkari's break point save percentage of 43.8% indicates resilience, crucial in tight matches. Tauson’s lack of available data on recent performance further enhances Sakkari's position, as uncertainty on her opponent's form creates an edge. The model probability of 52.9% versus the implied probability of 39.8% underscores Sakkari's potential for value, suggesting a statistically favorable bet. Overall, Sakkari's consistent serve metrics and ability to handle pressure make her the more reliable choice on this grass surface.

Wimbledon: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguet — Adrian Mannarino Moneyline (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Adrian Mannarino is the value pick at 1.53 against Titouan Droguet at Wimbledon, primarily due to his superior recent form on grass. Mannarino boasts a 68.7% first serve percentage and an impressive 74.6% of first points won, indicating solid serve performance. His second serve win rate at 59.4% further underscores his reliability under pressure. Additionally, his 70.8% break point save percentage shows that he excels in critical moments, while his ace rate of 6.98% indicates he can put opponents on the defensive. In contrast, Droguet has no recent data on serve performance, making his effectiveness uncertain. Given Mannarino's higher model probability of 77.96% compared to the implied probability of 65.36%, the edge of 12.6% reflects strong value in backing him. Overall, Mannarino's consistent serving and experience on grass position him as the likely victor.

Wimbledon: Jesper De Jong vs Rinky Hijikata — Jesper De Jong Moneyline (+417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jesper De Jong presents excellent value at 5.17 against Rinky Hijikata, especially on grass. Over his last five matches, De Jong has demonstrated a solid first-serve percentage of 69.8%, translating to a 51.4% win rate on first points. His second-serve performance is also commendable, winning 31.3% of those points. Notably, on grass, his first-serve percentage increases to 56.6%, with a high first-point win rate of 72.0% and a second-point win rate of 53.3%. His break point save percentage stands at 66.3% on grass, indicating resilience under pressure. Additionally, De Jong's recent form shows a 40% win rate over his last five matches, outperforming Hijikata's 30% win rate over ten. The odds imply only a 19.3% chance of De Jong winning, while our model gives him a 26.1% chance, highlighting a significant edge of 6.8% for this matchup.