Wimbledon: Gabriel Diallo vs Lorenzo Sonego — Lorenzo Sonego Moneyline (-323)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Lorenzo Sonego presents significant value at 1.31 against Gabriel Diallo in this Wimbledon matchup, backed by strong recent form and superior serve performance on grass. Sonego’s average first-serve percentage is an impressive 74.8%, with a first-point win rate of 74.0% and a second-point win rate of 58.1%. In contrast, Diallo has struggled, with only a 65.7% first-serve success rate and a 63.3% first-point win rate across his last five matches. Sonego's serve points won percentage stands at 70.1%, markedly higher than Diallo's 57.0%. Additionally, Sonego excels under pressure, boasting a 61.7% break point save rate compared to Diallo's 47.6%. Given that Sonego also has a higher ace rate (9.8%) and lower double fault rate (1.5%), these indicators collectively suggest he holds a decisive edge in both serve reliability and pressure performance, warranting a confident pick.

Wimbledon: Emma Navarro vs Oksana Selekhmeteva — Oksana Selekhmeteva Moneyline (+5300)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In the matchup between Emma Navarro and Oksana Selekhmeteva, the value clearly lies with Selekhmeteva at odds of 54. Recent form shows Navarro with a low win rate of 20% over her last five matches, indicating significant struggles. In contrast, Selekhmeteva has demonstrated a stronger serve performance, boasting a first-serve percentage of 63.3% and a first-serve points won rate of 60.3%, which are critical metrics on grass. Navarro's form indicates a concerning average of 52.2% in break point save percentage, suggesting vulnerability under pressure, while Selekhmeteva’s serve stats imply she can capitalize on Navarro's weaknesses. Additionally, the implied probability of Selekhmeteva winning is notably lower than her model probability of 3.74%, presenting a favorable edge of 1.9%. Overall, Selekhmeteva's superior serving metrics and Navarro's poor recent form position her as the value side in this contest.