Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud — Daniel Altmaier Moneyline (-185)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Daniel Altmaier presents significant value at 1.54 against Casper Ruud based on his recent form and serve performance. Over his last five matches, Altmaier boasts a solid 60% win rate, indicating strong competitive form. His hard court serve stats are impressive, with a first serve percentage of 61.96% and a first serve points won rate of 73.81%. He also excels on second serve, winning nearly 50% of those points. Crucially, his break point save percentage stands at 64.24%, showcasing resilience under pressure. Altmaier's ace rate of 12.99% and low double fault rate (2.45%) further enhance his serving reliability. In contrast, Ruud's recent performance metrics are less favorable, making Altmaier a compelling pick. With a model probability of 88.61% compared to an implied probability of just 64.93%, there’s a significant edge of 23.7% in Altmaier's favor.