Today's NFL Best Bets for ALL Games on Monday 11/10

The bet on the Buffalo Bills -8.5 in the spread market is backed by the Bills' superior recent form compared to the home team. Over the last five games, the Bills have scored an average of 26.6 points against 19.2, indicating a strong offensive performance. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) stands at 7.80 on offense and -0.76 on defense, which shows they are efficient in both scoring and preventing scores. In contrast, the home team has a negative EPA on offense and defense, indicating inefficiency. Moreover, the Bills have a point difference of 7.4, well above the spread, while the home team has a negative point difference. The Bills also have a better turnover rate, which suggests better ball security. Furthermore, the Bills' record against this opponent is 5-0, demonstrating their ability to perform well against this particular team. These factors collectively make the Bills a strong bet at -8.5.

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA Moneyline (+130)

The bet on Indianapolis Colts in the head-to-head market is driven by their strong recent performance, particularly at home. The Colts have an impressive home record, winning all of their last five games. They also have a strong scoring record at home, averaging 34.2 points per game in their last five home matches, compared to the away team's 15.8. Further, in terms of explosive plays, the Colts have been superior both overall and at home, indicating a more dynamic and unpredictable offensive unit. In addition, the Colts' Expected Points Added (EPA) differentials, both overall and at home, are significantly better than the away team's. This suggests the Colts have been more efficient at converting their plays into points. Lastly, the Colts have a positive turnover differential in their last five games, indicating better ball control. Despite a losing record against the opponent, the Colts' recent form provides a strong rationale for this bet.

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-114)

Despite their 2-3 record in the last five games, the Minnesota Vikings have demonstrated a strong performance in key areas that make them a promising bet in the 'spreads' market with a 4.5 point spread. When playing away, their score-for and score-against averages result in a positive point difference of 6.2, suggesting they can cover the spread. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) across both passing and rushing is also positive when playing away, indicating efficient offensive plays. This is reinforced by their high explosive rate for figures, which show they can make significant gains in single plays. Furthermore, they have a higher average total yards for (395.6) compared to against (339), emphasizing their offensive dominance. Although they have a negative turnover difference, it is minimal and unlikely to significantly impact the game outcome. With a model edge of 0.172, the statistical data supports a bet on the Vikings.

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-110)

The bet on Indianapolis Colts 1.5 in the 'spreads' market is justified by the team's recent superior performance, particularly at home. Over the last five games, the Colts have averaged a higher overall score (33.4) compared to their opponents (20.2). This is further emphasized in their home games, where they have an impressive average score of 34.2, a stark contrast to the opponent's away average of 15.8. Furthermore, their Expected Points Added (EPA) figures, which measure the impact of every play on the score of the game, are positive for both overall and home games. This indicates that they're likely to score more points per play. The team's turnover differential is also positive, suggesting they're likely to gain more possession from turnovers than they lose. Although their record against the opponents in the last five games is 0-1, their overall strong performance metrics make them a compelling bet.

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : Under 42.5 Total Points (+116)

The bet on Under 42.5 in the 'totals' market for the game is mainly driven by the performance of the away team. The away team's average score in the last 5 games is 20.2, while they have conceded an average of 23.8 points. Particularly when playing away, their scoring average drops to 15.8, and they concede 22 points on average. These figures suggest a potential total score of less than 42.5. Furthermore, their expected points added (EPA) figures also indicate less scoring. Their overall EPA for the last 5 games stands at 0.40, while their EPA against is 5.24, showing a better defensive than offensive performance. This trend is even more pronounced when playing away, with an EPA for of -5.22 and an EPA against of -0.16. Given these figures, it seems statistically reasonable to bet on a total score of less than 42.5