Matt Chapman (TOR) Under 3.5 Hits (-345)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Phillies, keep an eye on Matt Chapman’s hitting stats, particularly considering the under on 3.5 hits. Despite his impressive pedigree, Chapman has been inconsistent at the plate lately, and the Giants' lineup is seeing a resurgence in pitching. The Phillies, boasting a solid bullpen, have held opposing hitters in check, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Chapman. Additionally, San Francisco's home park, known for its deep alleys and tricky winds, can stifle even the best bats—Chapman just doesn’t seem to have the right rhythm against the likes of Philadelphia’s starters. With the Giants working through a streak of tight games, runs may be at a premium. Given the current landscape, betting on Chapman to stay under 3.5 hits feels like the smart play. It’s about reading the room, and right now, it’s a tough spot for him to thrive.

Edmundo Sosa (PHI) Under 1.5 Doubles (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Phillies, all eyes will be on Edmundo Sosa, but taking the under on his doubles seems wise. Sosa's been a mixed bag this season; while he flashes potential, the Giants’ pitching staff has been downright formidable at home, especially against left-handed hitters like him. With a current strikeout rate that’s risen recently, Sosa has struggled to find gaps in the outfield. San Francisco’s pitchers have limited opposing batters to a mere .290 slugging percentage at home, making it tough for any player to rack up extra-base hits. Moreover, Sosa’s current form shows he’s been hitting more ground balls than line drives, which diminishes his chances of finding the extra-base knock he needs. Given the metrics and the Giants' relentless pitching, it’s hard to envision Sosa surpassing that 1.5-doubles mark tonight.

Matt Chapman (TOR) Under 1.5 Doubles (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Giants host the Phillies on April 8, all eyes will be on Matt Chapman, but betting on him to hit over 1.5 doubles seems overly optimistic. While Chapman has been a consistent contributor, recent trends indicate he’s struggled against left-handed pitchers, and Philadelphia’s starter has been particularly effective in limiting extra-base hits. Chapman’s hard contact rate has dipped, and he’s been pulling the ball less frequently, which isn't a great sign at Oracle Park, where the spacious outfield can stifle power. The Giants' offense has also faced some inconsistency lately, making it hard to envision a scenario where Chapman finds those gaps consistently. Given the statistical edge suggesting an under of 0.12 doubles, it feels like the smart play is to take the under on Chapman’s doubles tonight, especially with a 95.2% implied probability backing that choice. With the Giants’ pitching poised to shine, this bet carries a strong rationale.

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