The under 0.5 bet on Oneil Cruz for Batter Stolen Bases is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. His last five overall and home game stolen base averages are both 0.4, implying he's less likely to steal a base in any given game. Even against this specific opponent, his stolen base average is only 0.7. Furthermore, he has not been caught stealing in the last five games, indicating that he is not taking many risks on base. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, are also low, suggesting a lower likelihood of getting on base to even attempt a steal. These statistics collectively point towards a lower probability of Cruz stealing a base in the upcoming game, making the under 0.5 bet a statistically sound choice.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-417)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Jacob deGrom to allow over 0.5 walks is supported by his recent performance data. In his last five games overall, deGrom has averaged 1.4 walks per game, which is above the target of 0.5. This trend continues even when focusing on his away games, where he averages 1 walk per game. Furthermore, his innings pitched (IP) averages are 5 overall and 4.2 when away, providing ample opportunities for walks to occur. Although his average walks against the Pirates is exactly 0.5, his current hit streak of 2 overall and 1 away suggests a slightly elevated risk of allowing hits, which could translate into walks under pressure. Therefore, based on deGrom's recent performances, the bet for him to allow over 0.5 walks is statistically justified.
Wyatt Langford (TEX) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-476)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Wyatt Langford for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is based on his recent performance data. Langford's average stolen base rate in the last five games is 0.6, but this drops to 0.2 when he's playing away games, indicating he's less likely to steal bases when not at home. Additionally, his current hit streak for both overall and away games is 0, suggesting his current form is not conducive to stealing bases. Furthermore, when facing the Pirates, his stolen base average is 0.5, which is still below the line of 0.5. Also, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate is very low, with 0.2 overall and 0 in away games, indicating he's not taking many risks on the bases. Therefore, the statistics suggest that Langford is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game.
Corey Seager (TEX) Under 1.5 Hits (-256)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Corey Seager for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is a statistically sound choice. Seager's recent performance data indicates a tendency to hit under the line. His average hits over the last five games, both overall and against the Pirates, sits at 1, which is below the line. His average hits in away games is slightly higher at 1.2, but still falls under the line. Furthermore, his average hits in away games against the Pirates drops even further to 0.7. Despite his current hit streak, Seager's plate appearances average around 4, suggesting he does not get a high volume of opportunities to exceed the line. Therefore, based on his recent averages and hit rate, the Under 1.5 bet for Corey Seager is a logical choice.