Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Threes Made (+116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Utah Jazz, all eyes will be on Ace Bailey, but here's the thing-betting on him to hit under 2.5 threes presents a compelling narrative. While Bailey has had some success recently, averaging 1.6 threes over his last five games, he's struggled noticeably against the Jazz, managing just 2 in total over their past matchups. On the road, his numbers dip even further, with a chilling average of 0 threes in their last away game against Utah. Sure, he's hit the mark in 5 of his last 6 games, but that's largely been at home. With a current away hit rate of 3 for 3, it feels like a perfect setup for regression. Given these trends, betting on Bailey to stay under 2.5 threes seems like a smart play as he faces a Jazz team that has tightened up defensively.

Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds (+100)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Thunder gear up to host the Jazz, Cason Wallace is poised to shine, making the Over 9.5 points + rebounds bet particularly enticing. At home, Wallace has been solid, averaging 9.4 points and 3.4 rebounds in his last five games. His overall contributions have been even more promising, with 10 points and 3 rebounds per game recently. Against Utah, he's fared well historically, notching an average of 8.8 points and 3.4 rebounds when playing at home. With a hit rate of 3 out of 5 in his last five games, it's clear he's finding his rhythm. The Thunder's offense will rely on him to step up, and with an expected stat value nudging 13, it feels like a great opportunity for Wallace to exceed that 9.5 mark. Expect him to rise to the occasion in front of the home crowd!

Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Utah Jazz, Chet Holmgren finds himself in a unique spot. While he's tallied impressive rebounding numbers against Utah in the past, averaging 11.3 boards at home recently, a deeper look reveals a more nuanced picture. In his last five games, Holmgren's overall rebounding has dipped to around 7.2 per game, and he's only surpassed the 8.5 mark twice in that span. With Utah likely to deploy a more defensive approach, the opportunities for Holmgren to clean the glass may dwindle. Factor in the Thunder's overall strategy and the potential for fewer rebounds with a focus on perimeter shooting, and it becomes clearer. The under on Holmgren's rebounds feels like a solid play at this moment, especially given the implied probability suggesting he'll fall short of that 8.5 threshold. Expect a tighter game on the boards - this one should go under.

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