On Saturday 1 August 2026, Oban Elliott takes on Michael Oliveira in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Michael Oliveira -7.5 on the Line, priced at -164 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Michael Oliveira -7.5 on the Line (-164)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Michael Oliveira is a solid pick here against Oban Elliott. Oliveira is known for his striking skills, and if he can keep the fight standing, he might outscore Elliott. On the other hand, if Elliott can take the fight to the ground, he could make things tougher for Oliveira. But based on how our numbers see it, there's a good chance Oliveira will win by a decent margin. Just remember, fights can be unpredictable, and anything can happen, so keep that in mind when placing your bet. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Oban Elliott to Win (+300)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Oban Elliott takes on Michael Oliveira in the UFC on Saturday 1 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Oban Elliott to Win. That is a match winner bet. It was priced at +300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $40 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Oban Elliott: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 180 days since the last fight
  • Michael Oliveira: last five W, on a 1-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 288 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Oban Elliott v Michael Oliveira. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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