New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a -10.5 spread can be justified by their superior performance metrics compared to their opponents. The Steelers have a positive model edge at 0.099, indicating they have a statistical advantage in the matchup. Furthermore, the Steelers appear to be stronger defensively, as the home team's recent games show a higher average of points scored against them (25.4 vs. 27.8 for the away team). The away team also displays a larger negative point differential, EPA differential, and higher yards allowed, indicating a weaker defense. Additionally, the home team has a more significant turnover differential, implying they may lose the ball more often, which the Steelers can capitalize on. Finally, the Steelers have a winning record against their opponents in their last five encounters (2-0), showing a history of success in this matchup.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 in the 'spreads' market is justified by the considerable statistical advantage the team seems to have. The model edge is positive at 0.082, suggesting the betting model finds value in backing the Steelers. Looking at recent performance, the Steelers have a better record than their opponents both overall (2-3 vs 1-4) and at home (1-4 vs 2-3). Moreover, the Steelers have won their last two matches against this opponent, indicating a trend in their favor. The Steelers also have a higher average score (19.4 vs 18.4), fewer points scored against them (25.4 vs 27.8), and a lower point difference (-6 vs -9.4). Additionally, the Steelers have a positive turnover differential, indicating they are more efficient in maintaining possession. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) – a measure of the contribution of each play to the

Drake Maye (NE) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the provided data, betting on Drake Maye to go under 16.5 rushing yards seems a favorable option. Maye's recent performance and hit rate trends reflect a consistency in falling short of this mark. Over the last 5 games, his overall and home hit rates are both 1/5, indicating that he has only surpassed 16.5 rushing yards 20% of the time. This trend is equally prevalent in a longer view, with his overall and home hit rates from the last 20 games being 3/15 and 1/7 respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, stands at zero. Given these statistics, the model's edge of 0.07 also leans towards the under bet. This data-driven analysis indicates that betting on Maye to rush for under 16.5 yards is statistically supported.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro