New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The over 49.5 bet in the totals market for this NFL game is supported by several key statistical insights. Firstly, both teams have shown strong offensive performance in their last five games, with the home team averaging 27.6 points and the away team averaging 28.2 points. This totals to an average of 55.8 points per game, well above the 49.5 point benchmark. Secondly, both teams have a positive point differential in their last five games, which suggests that they have been outscoring their opponents. The home team’s overall and home EPA (Expected Points Added) for is significantly higher than their EPA against, indicating strong offensive efficiency. Finally, the model edge of 0.066 suggests that the probability of the total score going over 49.5 is slightly higher than what the current betting odds imply. This, combined with the teams' recent scoring averages and offensive performances, supports the bet on over 49.5 points.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The overall scoring statistics for both teams favor a bet on over 49.5 points. The home team has averaged 27.6 points in their last five games, while the away team has averaged 28.2 points. This gives an expected total of 55.8 points, which is comfortably above the 49.5 point line. Furthermore, the home team has a positive point difference of 8.6, and the away team is also on the positive side with 3 points. Moreover, both teams have a positive EPA (Expected Points Added) difference which indicates both teams are efficient in their offensive plays. In addition, the home team has a record of 5-0 in their last five games, both overall and at home, while the away team has a decent record of 3-2 in their last five games. These factors collectively suggest a high scoring game is likely.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+140)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Despite Rhamondre Stevenson's overall poor performance in recent games, his specific record against the Buffalo Bills offers a more promising outlook for this bet. The Patriots RB has consistently performed well against the Bills, with hit rates of 75% overall, 75% in the last 5, and 100% at home in the last 3 and 5. These statistics suggest Stevenson has a knack for performing well against the Bills specifically, and especially when playing at home. However, it's important to note that these hit rates only apply to games against the Bills and his overall and recent performances have been quite poor with hit rates of 0 in the last 3, 5, and 10 games. Still, given his specific positive trend against the Bills, betting on Stevenson to go over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market could be a calculated risk worth taking.

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