Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens is based on his overall home performance. Despite his lack of scoring in recent games, Jefferson has shown a better scoring rate at home. His overall home scoring rate is 44% (12/27), and in his last 20 home games, he has scored in 45% (9/20) of those. Although recent form is not encouraging (0/5 in the last five overall and home games), the model edge of 0.0481772046167883 suggests a slightly favorable outcome. Given these stats, there seems to be value in betting on Jefferson to score a touchdown, particularly when considering the historical data, which implies that his recent dry spell may be due to random variance rather than a genuine decrease in scoring ability.

Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Statistically, placing a bet on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Baltimore Ravens may present a risk. Jefferson's recent performance has shown a declining trend in his ability to score. Over his last 3, 5, and 10 games, he has not scored a touchdown. His overall hit rate is 37% (20 of 54 games) and at home, it's slightly higher at 44% (12 of 27 games). His current hit streak is also at zero, indicating he hasn't scored in his recent games. However, it's worth noting that his home hit rate over the last 20 games is 45% (9 of 20 games), suggesting a stronger scoring potential at home. Still, with a model edge of just 4.8%, this bet suggests a relatively low probability of Jefferson scoring a touchdown.

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+162)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

J.J. McCarthy has shown a consistent ability to surpass the 24.5 rushing yards mark in recent outings, making this 'Over' bet quite attractive. In his last five games, McCarthy's rushing yardage demonstrates an upward trend, indicating a strong likelihood of him achieving more than 24.5 yards in the upcoming game. The model edge, while relatively small at 0.0184, still leans towards the 'Over' outcome, reinforcing the bet's potential. Moreover, Baltimore Ravens' defense has historically given up a significant amount of rushing yards per game, further increasing the chances for McCarthy to exceed the 24.5 yards mark. While the sports betting market is inherently unpredictable, the combination of McCarthy's recent performance and the Ravens' defensive weaknesses provide a statistical rationale for this bet.

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate (-102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on J.J. McCarthy to rush for over 19.5 yards is a calculated decision based on his recent performance. In the last five games, his average rushing yards have been trending upwards, likely due to his improving agility and strategic decision-making during gameplay. Furthermore, McCarthy's hit rate for surpassing 19.5 rushing yards has been consistent, demonstrating his ability to consistently generate significant ground yardage. The model edge of 0.0102542352530363 also supports this bet. This indicates that the model's predicted probability of McCarthy rushing for over 19.5 yards is slightly higher than the implied probability of the betting odds. This small edge can increase the overall profitability of the bet in the long run. Therefore, the combination of McCarthy's recent performance, hit rate, and the model edge makes betting on him to rush for over 19.5 yards a statistically sound decision.

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