Winning angles for Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots. Featuring 6 team bets with value. Includes NFL best bets, spreads, totals, moneyline picks, team props.
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Denver Broncos 4.5 in the spreads market is based on a comprehensive analysis of the recent performance data of both teams. The Broncos have a home record of 4-1 in their last 5 games, demonstrating strong performance on their home ground. They also have a positive home overall Expected Points Added (EPA) differential (3.09408330097527), which indicates that they typically outperform their opponents. However, their opponent has been significantly dominant on the road, with an away record of 5-0 and an even higher away EPA differential of 16.6417698405431. They've also outperformed the Broncos in terms of their explosive rate, both overall and on the road, which suggests they're more likely to make significant plays that can shift the course of the game. While the Broncos are statistically solid, the spread of 4.5 reflects the need for a buffer against their high-performing opponent. The model edge of
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-108)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Denver Broncos are the underdogs by 4.5 points in this matchup, but the betting data suggests they have a reasonable chance of covering the spread. In their last five games, the Broncos have an impressive overall record of 4-1, indicating a strong recent performance. This winning streak has been supported by an average score of 25.2 points per game, which is quite competitive. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the strength of their opponents. The opposing team has been dominant in their recent matches, scoring an average of 30.4 points per game, and holding a flawless 5-0 record. The Broncos do have an advantage in turnover difference, with a +0.8 in their last five games overall, suggesting they have been efficient in capitalizing on their opponents' mistakes. While this game is expected to be tight, the model edge of 0.145865284974093 suggests that there's value in betting on the Broncos to cover
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the historical performance data, there is a strong case for betting over 46.5 in the totals market. The home team has been scoring an average of 27.4 points while allowing an average of 14.4 points in their last five games. This results in an average total score of 41.8 points, already close to our target. The away team, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 30.4 points and allowing 26.6 points, resulting in a higher average total score of 57 points. Both teams have positive point differentials and expected points added (EPA) values, suggesting effective offensive plays. Moreover, both teams have low turnover rates, which means they are less likely to lose scoring opportunities due to lost possessions. Given these statistics, the combined scoring ability of both teams should comfortably exceed the 46.5 threshold, making the over a solid bet.
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams : Over 46.5 Total Points (-120)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 46.5 is justified by several key statistical factors. Firstly, both the home and away teams have shown strong offensive performance in their last five games. The home team has averaged 27.4 points, while the away team has averaged 30.4 points - both well above the 46.5 point total. Combined, they are averaging nearly 58 points, a clear signal towards an 'Over' bet. The home team has a strong record, having won all of its last five games both overall and at home. The away team also has a decent record, winning three out of their last five games both overall and away from home. Furthermore, the home team has a positive expected points added (EPA) differential (14.63), an indication of an efficient offense. The away team also has a positive EPA differential (5.98), meaning both teams are generally scoring more points than their opponents. Lastly, both teams have demonstrated explosive plays
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams : NA Moneyline (-139)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet is on the Seattle Seahawks in the head-to-head (h2h) market due to their strong recent performance. The Seahawks have won all of their last 5 games overall, as well as their last 5 home games. This is reflected in their point differentials, with a +13 for overall games and a higher +17.2 for home games. The Seahawks' Expected Points Added (EPA) differentials are also positive and higher than their opponents', indicating they are more efficient in both offense and defense. Additionally, they have maintained a low turnover ratio and a high explosive rate, indicating an ability to make significant plays. Despite their 2-3 record against the opponents in their last 5 meetings, the Seahawks' recent form and statistical advantages provide a rationale for betting on them for this game.
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams : NA Moneyline (-147)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet leans towards the Seattle Seahawks due to their impressive recent performance and superior statistics. The Seahawks have a 5-0 record in their last 5 games overall, as well as a 5-0 record in their last 5 home games. This indicates a strong home-field advantage. Their overall scoring for and against in the last 5 games are 27.4 and 14.4, respectively, yielding a positive point difference of 13. This is notably higher than the away team's point difference of 3.8. Furthermore, the Seahawks have shown better control in both offensive and defensive aspects of play. Their EPA (Expected Points Added) difference is significantly higher than the away team's, at 14.6 vs 5.98. This suggests that the Seahawks have been more efficient in their plays. Despite the Seahawks' less stellar record against the opponent (2-3), their recent form and superior stats support the bet on them.
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