On Saturday 22 August 2026, Marcio Barbosa takes on Ryan Kuse in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 0.5 Total Rounds, priced at +165 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 0.5 Total Rounds (+165)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

In the fight between Marcio Barbosa and Ryan Kuse, I like betting on less than half a round. Both fighters have a strong chance to end the match quickly, as Barbosa is known for his striking and Kuse can surprise with quick finishes. Given their styles, this could be a fast-paced fight with one of them getting knocked out or submitted early. While it's always tough to predict exactly how a fight will go, this pick has a decent chance, making it a fun bet to consider. It was priced at +165 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ryan Kuse +5.5 on the Line (+475)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Ryan Kuse is facing Marcio Barbosa in a UFC fight where Kuse needs to step up his game to keep things competitive. Kuse is known for his striking, while Barbosa is more of a well-rounded fighter. The bet on Kuse at +5.5 means he can lose but still cover the spread if he keeps it close. Our numbers see this as a long shot, but sometimes surprises happen in fights. Just remember, there's no guarantee, and anything can happen in the octagon! It was priced at +475 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $57.50 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Anthony Hernandez: last five L-W-W-W-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 181 days since the last fight
  • Anthony Wint: last five W, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 10 days since the last fight
  • Carli Judice: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 181 days since the last fight
  • Elise Reed: last five L-W-L-W-L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 461 days since the last fight
  • Gauge Young: last five W-W-L-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight
  • Gregory Rodrigues: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 28% of career wins came by knockout, 167 days since the last fight
  • Jackson McVey: last five W-L-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 118 days since the last fight
  • Jamall Emmers: last five W-W-L-W-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 286 days since the last fight
  • Jeisla Chaves: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 76 days since the last fight
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu: last five L-W-W-L-L, dropped the last 1, 33% of career wins came by knockout, 405 days since the last fight
  • Lerryan Douglas: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight
  • MarQuel Mederos: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 440 days since the last fight
  • Mason Jones: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
  • Reinier de Ridder: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 167 days since the last fight
  • Roman Dolidze: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
  • Shamil Gaziev: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 111 days since the last fight
  • Shanelle Dyer: last five W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
  • Wes Schultz: last five W-L-W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 111 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Marcio Barbosa v Ryan Kuse. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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