On Sunday 16 August 2026, Jalin Turner takes on Kauê Fernandes in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Kauê Fernandes to Win, priced at +125 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Kauê Fernandes to Win (+125)

Odds available at Ladbrokes at time of publishing

Kaue Fernandes is my pick to win against Jalin Turner. Kaue is known for his solid grappling skills, which could really help him control the fight. If he can take Turner to the ground and keep him there, he has a good chance of winning. While Turner is a strong striker, if Kaue can avoid the big punches and stick to his game plan, he might just pull off the victory. This isn't a sure thing, but it looks promising based on the way both fighters match up. It was priced at +125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.50 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kauê Fernandes +7.5 on the Line (-115)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

In the fight between Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes, I'm picking Kaue Fernandes with a point spread of 7.5. This means I think he can keep the fight close or even win. Both fighters have strong skills, but Kaue is known for his grappling, which could help him control the action. Jalin is a solid striker, so it might be tricky for Kaue. It's a bit of a toss-up, so while there's a good chance Kaue can do it, remember that anything can happen in the octagon. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Jalin Turner: last five W-L-L-W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 21% of career wins came by knockout, 252 days since the last fight
  • Kauê Fernandes: last five W-W-W-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 15% of career wins came by knockout, 343 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Jalin Turner v Kauê Fernandes. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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