Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Nico Collins for 'Yes' in the 'player_anytime_td' market appears to be a risky proposition based on Collins' recent and historical performance data. Overall, Collins has failed to score a touchdown in his last 10 games, and his home hit rate in the last 10 games is 30%. His performance against the Arizona Cardinals doesn't inspire confidence either, with a hit rate of 0/1 both overall and at home. Furthermore, in his last 20 games overall, Collins has a hit rate of 15% while his home game hit rate is slightly better at 45%. However, Collins hasn't scored against the Cardinals in his last 20 attempts. Collins' current streak also doesn't bode well, with zero touchdowns in his recent games overall, at home, and against the Cardinals. Given these statistics, it seems unlikely that Collins will score a touchdown in this game. This bet does not seem statistically favorable.

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals : Under 42.5 Total Points (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 42.5 bet in the totals market has strong statistical support. The home team has been performing well defensively, allowing only 17.4 points per game in their last five matches. Their strong defense is also reflected in their Expected Points Added (EPA) against, which at -8.05 suggests they've prevented significant scoring by their opponents. The away team, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, scoring an average of just 20.4 points per game in their last five. Their EPA for is also negative (-8.95), indicating they're not generating many scoring opportunities. Additionally, the away team's overall record in their last five games is 0-5, showing a lack of form. Given these statistics, it's reasonable to expect a low-scoring game, making the under 42.5 a sensible bet.

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