Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots : Over 41.5 Total Points (-105)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Over 41.5 in the 'totals' market for the game is supported by the consistent scoring performance from both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average score of 25.2, and the away team's equivalent is even higher at 30.4. This combined average of 55.6 is significantly higher than the total points line of 41.5, indicating a good chance of the game going 'Over'. Furthermore, both teams show effective offensive strategies, with high EPA values for passing plays, delivering explosive rates above 20%. The away team’s total yards for in their last five games is also quite high at 396.2, indicating their strong offensive capabilities. The model edge of 0.088 also provides additional confidence in the 'Over' outcome. Overall, the statistical data supports the Over bet.

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots : Over 41.5 Total Points (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Over 41.5 bet in the totals market for this game is primarily supported by the scoring averages of both teams in their last five games. The home team has averaged 25.2 points, while the away team has averaged 30.4 points, which collectively surpasses the 41.5 total. This indicates a high-scoring trend for both teams. In addition, both teams possess strong overall offensive performances, shown by their positive EPA (Expected Points Added) values. The home team has a positive pass EPA (4.30) and the away team also has a substantial pass EPA (7.87), indicating strong passing attacks that can contribute to a high-scoring game. Moreover, the away team's overall L5 against score is 12.6, indicating a solid defense. However, considering the home team's scoring record and the away team's explosive rate for (0.234), the combined score could still exceed 41.5. Therefore, the Over

Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jarrett Stidham for Under 14.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market is backed by a blend of historical data and recent performance trends. Over the last five games, Stidham has consistently performed under this threshold with a hit rate of 4/5. This trend is even more pronounced when we look at the last ten games, where he has stayed under 14.5 rushing yards 5 out of 8 times. His overall hit rate across all games also supports this bet, standing at 5/8. Moreover, his performance at home further solidifies this rationale as he has stayed under the mark in 2 out of his last 5 home games. In addition, he is currently not on a hit streak. Therefore, the statistical data points towards a high probability of Stidham not surpassing 14.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the Denver Broncos.

Jarrett Stidham (DEN) Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Jarrett Stidham for under 14.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market is statistically sound given his recent performance and trends. Specifically, his overall hit rate for the last 5 games is at 80% (4/5), indicating that he has consistently rushed for under 14.5 yards in most of his recent games. Furthermore, his overall hit rate for the last 10 games and overall (5/8) demonstrates a consistent pattern of rushing for under 14.5 yards in more than half of his games. While his home performance is weaker (40% hit rate in the last 5 and 10 games, and overall), the game is at Denver Broncos' home ground, not the Patriots', making this less significant. Lastly, the model edge of 0.0279868769896741 indicates a slight advantage in this bet. Therefore, the data suggests that betting on Stidham to rush for under 14

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