Jalen Tolbert (DAL) Under 1.5 Receptions (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data suggests a strong rationale for placing a bet on Jalen Tolbert to record under 1.5 receptions in the upcoming Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants game. Firstly, Tolbert's overall hit rate is just over a third (12/34), indicating he doesn't often exceed this reception threshold. This trend holds true both at home (6/18) and against the Giants (2/5). Moreover, when facing the Giants at home, Tolbert has never managed to surpass 1.5 receptions (0/2), suggesting that the Giants' defense may particularly limit his receiving opportunities. His current hit streaks also do not suggest a positive trend, with zero hits at home and against the Giants. Lastly, the model gives an edge of 0.1749 for the under outcome, further indicating that the under 1.5 receptions is the statistically supported bet for Jalen Tolbert in this game.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Dak Prescott for Over 3.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market is promising from a statistical perspective. Prescott has consistently performed well at home, with a hit rate of 14/19 overall and 8/10 in his last 10 games. His performance against the New York Giants is even more compelling, hitting 3/4 overall and maintaining a 100% hit rate (2/2) when playing at home against the Giants. While his recent overall performance may not be as strong, with a hit rate of 1/5 in the last 5 games, at home his hit rate improves to 3/5. Considering Prescott's strong home and vs. Giants statistics, coupled with the model's edge of 0.1475, there is good reason to bet on Prescott surpassing 3.5 rushing yards in the upcoming match against the New York Giants.

Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+870)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data suggests that betting on Dak Prescott to rush for over 24.5 yards in the upcoming game against the New York Giants may not be a favorable wager. Prescott's recent performances indicate a trend of falling short of this mark. His overall hit rate is 6 out of 41, which equates to roughly a 15% success rate. When playing at home, his hit rate decreases to approximately 11% (2 out of 19). Against the Giants specifically, Prescott has consistently missed the mark, with a hit rate of 0 out of 4 overall and at home. His current hit streaks in all categories are at zero. While the model edge of 0.1285 indicates a slight advantage, it's important to consider the historical trends which suggest that the likelihood of Prescott surpassing 24.5 rushing yards is low. Therefore, the statistical data does not support this bet.

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