Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast Prediction & Picks: Analytics Breakdown

On Saturday 22 August 2026, Chris Padilla takes on Nasrat Haqparast in the UFC. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Nasrat Haqparast -3.5 on the Line, priced at +150 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Nasrat Haqparast -3.5 on the Line (+150)

I'm picking Nasrat Haqparast to win by more than 3.5 points against Chris Padilla. Haqparast is a strong striker, and he really knows how to control the fight. He should be able to keep the pressure on Padilla and score more points. While this fight is pretty close, I think Nasrat has the skills to pull ahead. Remember, this is still a tough matchup, and anything can happen in the ring, so keep that in mind! It was priced at +150 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Anthony Hernandez: last five L-W-W-W-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 181 days since the last fight
• Carli Judice: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 181 days since the last fight
• Elise Reed: last five L-W-L-W-L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 461 days since the last fight
• Gauge Young: last five W-W-L-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight
• Gregory Rodrigues: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 28% of career wins came by knockout, 167 days since the last fight
• Jackson McVey: last five W-L-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 118 days since the last fight
• Jamall Emmers: last five W-W-L-W-L, on a 2-fight win streak, 7% of career wins came by knockout, 286 days since the last fight
• Jeisla Chaves: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 76 days since the last fight
• Kennedy Nzechukwu: last five L-W-W-L-L, dropped the last 1, 33% of career wins came by knockout, 405 days since the last fight
• Lerryan Douglas: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 146 days since the last fight
• Marcio Barbosa: last five W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 125 days since the last fight
• MarQuel Mederos: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 440 days since the last fight
• Mason Jones: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
• Reinier de Ridder: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 167 days since the last fight
• Roman Dolidze: last five L-L-W-W-W, dropped the last 2, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
• Shamil Gaziev: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 111 days since the last fight
• Shanelle Dyer: last five W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 153 days since the last fight
• Wes Schultz: last five W-L-W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 111 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Chris Padilla v Nasrat Haqparast. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.