On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos play Newcastle Knights in the NRL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Newcastle Knights +23.5 on the Line, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Newcastle Knights +23.5 on the Line (-769)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Newcastle Knights 23.5 Line. On this line Newcastle Knights start with 23.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Newcastle Knights to Win the First Half (+160)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Newcastle Knights First Half Match Winner. This one only needs Newcastle Knights to be in front at half time. It was priced at +160 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +160 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Newcastle Knights to Win (+170)

Odds available at BetRight at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Newcastle Knights Match Winner. This one only needs Newcastle Knights to win the game. It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. That price was showing at BetRight. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +170 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $27 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mat Croker to Score a Try (+1400)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Mat Croker Anytime Try Scorer. This wins if Mat Croker scores a try at any point in the game. It was priced at +1400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $150 if it lands. That price was showing at PointsBet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +1400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $150 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Fletcher Sharpe Over 2.5 Tries (+8000)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Fletcher Sharpe Over 2.5 Tries. This wins if Fletcher Sharpe scores at least 3 tries. It was priced at +8000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $810 if it lands. That price was showing at PointsBet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +8000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $810 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Ben Talty Over 1.5 Tries (+15000)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

On Saturday 1 August 2026, Brisbane Broncos host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Ben Talty Over 1.5 Tries. This wins if Ben Talty scores at least 2 tries. It was priced at +15000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1510 if it lands. That price was showing at PointsBet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +15000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1510 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks