On Sunday 23 August 2026, Anthony Hernandez takes on Gregory Rodrigues in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Rounds, priced at -204 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 3.5 Total Rounds (-204)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

In the fight between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues, we're looking at two fighters with different styles. Hernandez is a skilled grappler, while Rodrigues likes to strike. This matchup leans toward a quick finish, since both fighters can end a fight fast. Our numbers suggest that the fight will likely last under four rounds, which makes betting on under 3.5 rounds a smart choice. Keep in mind, though, anything can happen in the octagon, so while it looks good, there are no guarantees. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Anthony Hernandez -13.5 on the Line (-110)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

In the fight between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues, I like the bet on Hernandez to win by more than 13.5 points. Hernandez is known for his grappling skills, which could give him the upper hand if he can control the fight on the ground. Rodrigues is a strong striker, but if Hernandez can take him down early and keep him there, he should score enough points to cover the spread. This matchup feels pretty even overall, so while this is a solid pick, there's no guarantee. Just remember, anything can happen in the octagon! It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Gregory Rodrigues to Win (+160)

Odds available at Betanysports at time of publishing

I like Gregory Rodrigues to win his fight against Anthony Hernandez. Rodrigues is known for his striking and can finish fights quickly if he gets the chance. Hernandez is a tough opponent but tends to rely on grappling, which can be risky if Rodrigues keeps the fight standing. With Rodrigues being the underdog, there's a good chance he can pull off a win, especially if he plays to his strengths. It won't be easy, but he definitely has a shot. Just remember, in fights like this, anything can happen! It was priced at +160 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $26 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Anthony Hernandez: last five L-W-W-W-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 180 days since the last fight
  • Gregory Rodrigues: last five W-W-W-L-W, on a 3-fight win streak, 28% of career wins came by knockout, 166 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Anthony Hernandez v Gregory Rodrigues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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