We identify value in Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens. Featuring 6 team bets with value. Explore NFL best bets, spreads, totals, moneyline picks, team props.
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data supports a bet on Over 47.5 for the NA vs NA game. The recent scoring history of both teams indicates a high probability of surpassing this total. In the last five games, the home team has averaged 20.2 points, and the away team has averaged 18.2 points. This equates to a combined average of 38.4 points per game, which is below the 47.5 point threshold. However, when looking at the score against averages, the home team has conceded 26 points per game, and the away team has conceded 24 points per game, giving a combined average of 50 points per game, which is above the target total. Therefore, considering the defensive weaknesses and scoring abilities of both teams, it's statistically plausible to expect a high-scoring game. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.184376144669747 suggests the model sees value in this bet, providing additional support for this choice.
Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Minnesota Vikings with a 4.5 spread in the 'spreads' market is justified on several grounds. Firstly, the Minnesota Vikings have a model edge of 0.148, indicating a favorable probability of covering the spread. Despite both teams having a 2-3 record in their last five games, the home team has shown a weaker performance with an overall point differential of -5.8 compared to the Vikings' -5.8. The Vikings also hold an advantage in explosive rate for, with 0.246 compared to the home team's 0.230. In the EPA (Expected Points Added) analysis, the Vikings outperform the home team in pass EPA for and rush EPA for. The Vikings also have fewer turnovers in their recent away games, with an average of 1.2 compared to the home team's 1.4. This indicates a stronger offensive and defensive performance by the Vikings, supporting the bet.
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Indianapolis Colts -6.5 in the 'spreads' market is based on the Colts' strong recent performance and the opponent's weaker stats. The Colts' home overall and home/away last five games (L5) stats show they outscore their opponents by a large margin, with a home overall L5 score for of 33.4 against 19.6, and home/away L5 score for of 34.2 against 16.6. These figures well exceed the 6.5 spread. The Colts' expected points added (EPA) for stats far outstrip those against, particularly in passing and rushing, indicating efficient offense. Their explosive rate for is also high, suggesting they frequently make significant gains. The Colts have a strong recent home record (5-0), while their opponent struggles on the road (1-4). Although the Colts lost their last game against this opponent, their recent form and statistical advantage suggest they can overturn this
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA -6.5 Point Spread (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Indianapolis Colts -6.5 in the 'spreads' market is substantiated by their impressive recent performances. The Colts have an overall record of 4-1 in their last five games, demonstrating their current strong form. They have consistently outscored their opponents, with an average score difference of 13.8 points, well beyond the spread of 6.5. This robust performance is backed by their superior Expected Points Added (EPA), indicating effective offensive and defensive plays. Comparatively, their opponents have struggled recently, with a record of 2-3 and a negative score differential of -3.6 points in their last five games. Their EPA figures also lag behind, suggesting problems in both attack and defense. Additionally, the Colts' home form is excellent with a 5-0 record and a higher score difference of 17.6 points, which further supports the bet. Their superior total yards, turnover differential, and explosive rate underscore their dominance
Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Minnesota Vikings with a 4.5 spread in this game is based on a combination of both teams' recent performance and the Vikings' statistical advantages. The Vikings have a model edge of 0.1394, suggesting a statistical advantage. When looking at home and away performances, the Vikings (away team) show a considerable advantage in their last five games. They have a better average score (28.8 vs 26.6) and a lower average score against (22.6 vs 19.4). This leads to a higher points difference (6.2 vs 7.2), suggesting the Vikings can outscore their opponents by a wider margin. Moreover, the Vikings have better pass and rush EPA (expected points added) both for and against, indicating their offensive and defensive efficiency is higher. They also have a higher total yards average (395.6 vs 341.4) indicating a more potent offense, and a better turnover differential (-0
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Denver Broncos have been performing exceptionally well, as evidenced by their 5-0 record in their last five games overall and at home. In contrast, the away team has a 1-4 record in their last five games overall and a 2-3 record in their last five away games. Statistically, the Broncos have a much higher overall score (25.8) compared to the away team's score (15.8), and a lower score against (19.8) compared to the away team's score against (27.2). This translates to a significantly better point difference for the Broncos (6 points) compared to the away team's (-11.4 points). Regarding the Expected Points Added (EPA), the Broncos are also outperforming with a home overall L5 EPA difference of 5.64 compared to the away team's negative EPA difference of -13.36. This indicates that the Broncos are adding more points per play while effectively suppressing their opponents
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